Poll : Will the ceasefire last?

[Hannibal]

Do you think it will last?

[Hooch Turner]

NO, they will both break it and blame each other. De-ja-Vue back to the 1980's again!

[Snowden]

I think Hezbollah will re-arm, with the usual backers of course - and will once again fire missiles into Israel unless the UN force remains forever. They aren't in a hurry. This war is already 1400 years old - there is no hurry. They are sure they will win, and history shows the progress they've made by fair means and by warfare.

When they are ready, I do believe Hezbollah will start it up again. They have always done so in the past.

[milmor_1]

It will NOT last.

For the following reasons.

a. Hezbollah will attack IDF troops until they withdraw

b. The IDF will NOT withdraw until the UN Force is in place.

c. Hezbollah will regroup and be rearmed.

d. 31 August is a UN Deadline for Iran to cease nuclear enrichment. Iran will need another diversion.

e. Israel is viewed as having lost the political/propaganda war and CANNOT appear to be weak.

[Bluehawk]

I have come to the point at which the concept of a traditional "ceasefire" has ceased to have any recognizable meaning at all... given the nature of this war and the enemy.

It seems to me that attempting to apply 19th century military decencies to 21st century guerilla tactics and strategy is just not going to work... anymore.

If the ceasefire quells emotions and ends death or destruction, then fine. I look for it to continue thereafter in the foreseeable future, under some new auspices or rationale, the cause of which will, again, be indeterminate.

[Betty Boop]

"Brokered peace" is something that rarely lasts. Hezbollah is NOT a recognized government - it is a recognized terrorist organization. If the Lebanese government could have controlled them, they would have before 1,000+ Lebanese civillain casualties happened in the last 30 days. Hezbollah will break it since Lebanon has allowed them to be "a state within a state" that militarily they can't control or defeat and Israel will RIGHTFULLY respond in kind to defend herself. Every nation has a right to defend themselves - most especially against terrorists - which is exactly what Israel has done in the last month.

Besides, look at who "brokered" the peace - the United Nations. Now, don't they have a great track record on such things? The peace won't last - what will happen is that a lot of multinational troop on "peacekeeping mission" will end up in the crosshairs and dead. The world community has once again condoned and appeased terrorists and by this resolution stood with the terrorists, not condemned them.

I am convinced the only way to achieve a lasting peace in the Middle East is to nuke it out of existence - but in real world terms I would never really suggest such a horrible thing.

[RAMESES the Great]

For all the reasons listed above, by all posters, it will last only hours until one side, or the other breaks it, blaming, rightly, provocation by the other. If a real peacekeeping force was in place, with the power and will to enforce the ceasefire, perhaps a little longer, but no such force is ever to likely to exist.