Ceasefire in Mideast but real war is only starting

[milmor_1]

The following article puts a different light on the much hailed and welcomed (by some) ceasefire in the middle east.

This is a very dangerous time, and more and more it looks lioke Hezbollah has a somewhat technical victory over Israel. They know what the IDF response will be to the smallest attack, and will no doubt welcome it because of the subsequent world outcry at IDF "disproportionate" response.

It is my belief that the democratic countries have played into the hands of hezbollah and their sponsors and we will be played like a hand cards.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...4485&printer=1

Ceasefire in Mideast but real war is only starting

Monday August 14th 2006

Thunder of bombs drowns UN voice of peace

THE real war in Lebanon begins today.

The world may believe - and Israel may believe - that the UN ceasefire due to come into effect at 6am today marks the beginning of the end of the latest dirty war in Lebanon.

The reality is different and stark.

The Israeli army, reeling under the Hizbollah's onslaught of the past 24 hours, is now facing the harshest guerrilla war in its history.

And it is a war they may well lose.

In all, possibly 43 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the past day as Hizbollah guerrillas, still launching missiles into Israel itself, have fought back against Israel's massive land invasion into Lebanon.

Israeli military authorities talked of "cleaning" and "mopping up" operations by their soldiers south of the Litani river.

And with only hours of combat left, the Israeli war machine went into full force, slamming Beirut, bombarding cities and sending airborne troops deep into Hizbollah territory.

In one two-minute attack alone 20 missiles pounded into southern Beirut.

But to the Lebanese it still seems as if it is the Hizbollah that have been doing the 'mopping up'.

By last night, the Israelis had not even been able to reach the dead crew of a helicopter - shot down by the Hizbollah on Saturday night - which crashed into a Lebanese valley.

The peace deal was thrown into deeper jeopardy by Hizbollah's apparent refusal to disarm its guerrillas in the planned buffer zone along the Israeli border.

Even as the Israeli Cabinet unanimously approved a cessation of hostilities for 8am local time (6am BST) today, Fouad Siniora, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, was struggling to keep the peace plan alive.

Hizbollah fired hundreds more missiles into Israel and refused calls to disarm as 30,000 Israeli troops pressed into southern Lebanon.

Throughout yesterday Israeli warplanes launched scores of strikes on more than 50 Lebanese villages and towns, killing at least 12.

Israeli planes bombed Beirut's southern suburb, destroying 11 residential buildings and killing at least two children.

Hizbollah launched its heaviest one-day rocket barrage into Israel, firing more than 250 rockets that killed one and injured 91.

According to the terms of the ceasefire, which was passed by the UN Security Council on Friday but accepted by Israel 48 hours later after it had deployed more troops inside Lebanon, the guns should have fallen quiet at 6am today.

But with Hizbollah vowing to fight any Israeli soldier still on Lebanese soil and Israel retaining the right to defend itself, the chance of an immediate, comprehensive truce appeared perilously slim.

If the ceasefire holds, up to 15,000 Lebanese troops, reinforced by around 10,000 international UN peacekeepers, would deploy into the south of the Lebanon to secure its border with Israel and ensure no Hizbollah presence there.

Israel reserved the right to keep several thousands of its own troops inside Lebanon until the new border monitoring force is on the ground.

It will take several weeks for to reach the area. Lebanon indefinitely postponed talks yesterday on how to deploy its armed forces to the south.

The two Israeli soldiers captured by Hizbollah in the July 12 raid that sparked the crisis remain captive.

A scheduled cabinet meeting in Beirut to finalise plans to deploy 15,000 Lebanese troops to police the UN-mandated buffer zone was postponed after the two Hizbollah ministers in the coalition Government threatened to boycott it.

"Hizbollah changed its position, going back on what was agreed unanimously during Saturday's Cabinet meeting to support the ceasefire proposals and immediately deploy the Lebanese army," a senior Lebanese official said.

At the UN, officials said that the organisation was taking a "wait-and-see" approach.

Israel used the countdown to the ceasefire to try to kill Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader, by bombing what they believed was his underground hideout in Beirut.

In the fiercest bombardment that the capital has felt since this conflict began, a barrage of 18 missiles landed in the southern suburbs within two minutes from warplanes and Israeli warships offshore.

The main target was an apartment block in the Rweiss neighbourhood, where Israeli officials claimed Hizbollah leaders were using a basement.

Robert Fisk

[Bluehawk]

I believe Israel will need to withdraw forces south or to the southern Lebanese border in order for the Lebanon military, and whichever supporting forces are allied with them, to attempt a holding occupation of the territory south of Beirut.

The wild cards are, as suggested above, numerous.

There is zero guarantee, even if Israel does withdraw, that Hezbollah will NOT fire across the southern border again, or that Israel acting on "good intelligence" might not pre-emptively go after Hezbollah leaders north of the border either... with or without warning in both instances.

However, Israel does need to withdraw land forces... or so it would seem. They have refused to do so last time I checked, and so there will be no ceasefire compliance or supporting votes in Lebanese parliament, to the extent there will be any at all, from Hezbollah.