California earthquakes

[sfga6970]

Thought that this might be of interest to our California members.




AFP Photo Expert Warns California to Brace for Big Quake
(AFP) - A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will soon hit southern California. Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way. More...

• Earthquakes Can Be Predicted Months In Advance (ScienceDaily)
• Predicting a Quake - Seismic Hazard Maps (USGS)
• Interactive: Understanding

[Woodmonkey]

Originally Posted by sfga6970

Thought that this might be of interest to our California members.

If it's true, that would be great. They made that breakthrough with predicting hurricanes and it's saved lives.

[cb88]

Originally Posted by sfga6970

Thought that this might be of interest to our California members.




AFP Photo Expert Warns California to Brace for Big Quake
(AFP) - A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will soon hit southern California. Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way. More...

• Earthquakes Can Be Predicted Months In Advance (ScienceDaily)
• Predicting a Quake - Seismic Hazard Maps (USGS)
• Interactive: Understanding

I just want to know when it's going to fall in the ocean.


Kidding, I hope that's true. I was born & raised in So. Cal, lived through a lot of earthquakes. Had lots of stuff broken. It'd be nice to be able to predict them so you could put your breakables up.

[sfga6970]

Originally Posted by cb88

I just want to know when it's going to fall in the ocean.

I hope the only part that falls in the ocean is where my ex lives!

[cb88]

Originally Posted by sfga6970

I hope the only part that falls in the ocean is where my ex lives!

my ex lives in IL, so I guess I'm SOL

Seriously, though....the best "immediate" warning systems, have always come from the animals. The dogs & birds always went NUTSO right before a quake hit.

[bd]

The science isn't there to do this folks. If this guy's right on his prediction date, it's called luck. And so far, his prediciton of "before this date" is not very impressive. It's called glory-hounding. Guess what... I predict that somewhere, sometime a tree will fall in the forest and someone will actually hear it. So am I a revolutionary scientist now?

I'll happily examine his relocation algorithms and how he's relating his relocations to earthquake hazard assessment if he actually publishes them and puts them up for peer review. Now, that's providing he's using the best relocation method. And, since I know who's doing that personally, I'm pretty confident in my prediction...this guy's just lucky.

And I sure wouldn't bank on my dog warning me either.

But hey, what do I know?

B(aguywithjudstatadbitofgeophysicsbackground)D

[cb88]

Originally Posted by bd

The science isn't there to do this folks. If this guy's right on his prediction date, it's called luck. And so far, his prediciton of "before this date" is not very impressive. It's called glory-hounding. Guess what... I predict that somewhere, sometime a tree will fall in the forest and someone will actually hear it. So am I a revolutionary scientist now?

I'll happily examine his relocation algorithms and how he's relating his relocations to earthquake hazard assessment if he actually publishes them and puts them up for peer review. Now, that's providing he's using the best relocation method. And, since I know who's doing that personally, I'm pretty confident in my prediction...this guy's just lucky.

And I sure wouldn't bank on my dog warning me either.

Hey now!!! My dogs used to go nuts in Calif., but only minutes before I actually felt the quake, not enough time to do anything.

But hey, what do I know?

B(aguywithjudstatadbitofgeophysicsbackground)D

And with this I know you are being VERY modest about your background. I'd go to the bank with anything you said in this field.