Oil will cost $52/barrel by 2025

[cb88]

Breaking News from NewsMax.com

Report: Oil Will Cost $51/barrel by 2025

WASHINGTON -- Crude oil prices will increase gradually and reach $51 a barrel by 2025 due to inflation and rising energy needs in developing nations, according to an Energy Department projection.

<snip>

The report projects global energy demand to grow about 54 percent by 2025. But China, India and other developing countries will see a 91 percent jump as these countries continue rapid industrial development, said the EIA.


OPEC producers are expected to still be the major oil suppliers in 2025, the report said. They now account for about a third of the oil being pumped.

<snip>Coal and oil will remain dominant fuels despite concerns about climate-changing ``greenhouse'' gases, the report said. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, will increase from 23.4 billion metric tons in 2001 - the baseline used in the report - to 37.1 billion metric tons by 2025, according to the EIA projections.


*cb88 Note: I know some of you don't like Newsmax, but they took this off the AP Wire. My thoughts are.... In light of this information, shouldn't we be doing more to explore alternative fuel sources?

[BrianK]

Cb I've looked for information that tells me how much oil is thought to be in the ground in all the various oil producing locations. I haven't been able to find any.

Quantity used daily & projected use figures available ? not really.

Not addressed & I've not seen anything relating to this. Oil has mass & like water can displace external force. Hydraulics is a good example of fluid working or displacing mass. Keeping in mind that billions of barrels of crude oil will be pumped out what happens when the area that the crude oil was in is pumped dry?

Projecting cost per barrel based on use is one thing; how about science projecting what will be available? I think if I were in the 35 to 45 year old range I'd be interestd in how long the earth could continue to supply crude oil.

If anyone that happens to read this post knows of web sites where scientific information concerning oil supply for now & in the future are. I'd appreciate if the sites were posted. Thanks.

[cb88]

Originally Posted by BrianK

Cb I've looked for information that tells me how much oil is thought to be in the ground in all the various oil producing locations. I haven't been able to find any.

Quantity used daily & projected use figures available ? not really.

Not addressed & I've not seen anything relating to this. Oil has mass & like water can displace external force. Hydraulics is a good example of fluid working or displacing mass. Keeping in mind that billions of barrels of crude oil will be pumped out what happens when the area that the crude oil was in is pumped dry?

Projecting cost per barrel based on use is one thing; how about science projecting what will be available? I think if I were in the 35 to 45 year old range I'd be interestd in how long the earth could continue to supply crude oil.

If anyone that happens to read this post knows of web sites where scientific information concerning oil supply for now & in the future are. I'd appreciate if the sites were posted. Thanks.

bd might have some ideas, if he's around. Or you can go to www.doe.gov

I found this by searching "ask jeeves" but I'm not sure as to the reliability of the source (and the numbers are pretty scary) http://www.ee.usyd.edu.au/~davidh/EL...k7/tsld011.htm

There is a limited supply of fossil fuels

• Fossil fuels contribute 88% of all energy.

• Although fossil fuels are ultimately replaceable, they are being depleted much faster than they are being replenished.

• At current usage rates, it is expected that the remaining levels for each fuel are:
  • coal 1500 years
  • gas 120 years
  • oil 60 years

• End Use / Future Energy Sources ..

[cb88]

Additional article:


http://www.coursework.info/i/24179.html

And this one:

http://www.fenrir.com/free_stuff/col...ce/sci-029.htm

And this one:

http://cseserv.engr.scu.edu/nquinn/E...earchPaper.htm



There are lots of articles out there....I just don't know which source is "reliable" and which info to believe. I would say, read them all, and then discern for yourself what you believe.

[bd]

Originally Posted by BrianK

Not addressed & I've not seen anything relating to this. Oil has mass & like water can displace external force. Hydraulics is a good example of fluid working or displacing mass. Keeping in mind that billions of barrels of crude oil will be pumped out what happens when the area that the crude oil was in is pumped dry?

Hi Brian,

First let me say that I'm not a petroleum geologist. But I do know a thing or two. Well, several things can happen when you pump an oilfield to the limits of this production potential. All you're really doing is just removing fluid from a porespace, and that fliud can be replaced at some level by other fluids. A petroleum reservoir is not a big cavern filled with oil, so you don't see a massive subsurface collapse. You may see some minimal seismic activity with settling and other processes when you do remove fliuds though. Usually, what happens is that the formation you pump from just becomes "dry" (for lack of a better term).

The amount of petroleum you can recover in any particular field is dependent on the porosity of the bearing formation. This porosity and subsequent estimation of fluids is a multistep process. First, a seismic survey is performed over an area (explosives/vibroseise on land, acoustic over ocean). That survey data is then interpreted to look at the strata. From there, a good petroleum geologist can start picking areas where likely petroleum deposits can be found. Yur next step is to drill test hole, pull core and see what's there. Then you develop your filed based on that information. Now, knowing what we do about geology, we can estimate potential production areas to some extent regionally. That's where your estimates will come from, and they will vary.

One of the big issues is not really getting to petroleum bearing strata, it's getting to productive strata, where the amount of petroleum you get is worth the $$ it takes to get there. New production methods are helping out in this as well. And really there's still a lot of petroleum fields out there we're not tapping yet. Usually what keeps us from that is the recovery cost.

Hope this helps. Take care,

BD

[BrianK]

CB & BD thank you both for the responses. I have the sites copied & will begin reviewing what they have to offer.

To be honest I was beginning to think space exploration was being stepped up because were not being told the extent of the depletion. Coal is nice to fall back on as an energy source but not quite what I'd imagine powering space exploration.

[robini123]

That can't be true. I mean we went to war for oil... right?