Developing Story...China, Russia to 'Reherse Invasion of Taiwan'

[Woodmonkey]

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[JohnRN]

Here's a post by an Officer in the PRC Navy, in response to my questions to him regarding the passage of a new "Law" in China regarding use of froce against Taiwan ::

Well John my friend, long time no see~ to my opinion, that law is a bull****, cos commies permitted and admitted independence of Mongolia more than half a century ago, gave mt Paektu San to North Korea in 1961, gave Bach Long Vi island (in Tonkin Gulf) to Viet Nam in late 1960s, that proved no any piece of China is "sacrosanctity indiscerptible" for commies. That so called "law" is no more than a political show to mainland nationalists.

Another PoV ::

The Chinese (Communists and Nationalists) have been willing to give up territory (more often claims to territory) considered previously "sacrosanct" as a result of current political realities. Consider the territory given up by the Qing and Nationalists to the colonial powers (some, but not all, regained later) and by the Communists to political pressure from the Soviets and other political considerations. As a result, there are probably circumstances by which Taiwan could become fully independent and have that independence acknowledged by China. Of course, Taiwan could declare independence and either survive a war or bluff the Chinese into not invading. They could also wait until some internal problems in China present an opportunity to slip away. But they could also try to negotiate their independence (assuming China would listen and Taiwan's Chinese would allow it). I have been thinking about some things China might insist on in exchange for independence, keeping in mind that it would not be cheap:

1) China's biggest fear concerning an independent Taiwan (and American neo-cons biggest hope) is that an independent Taiwan would become a massive American military base. China would probably, therefore, insist on a Taiwanese "declaration of neutrality" and that Taiwan sign a treaty to the effect that foreign military forces could not be based there.

2) The Chinese could also insist on a multi-national treaty recognizing China's national integrity and stating that no other "breakaway" regions (ie Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria) would be recognized or supported by the rest of the world.

3) The Chinese would probably insist on the return to China of Quemoy, Matsu, and the other small islands close to the Chinese coast controlled by Taiwan.

4) They would probably also insist on the return of all of the treasures and artifacts in the National Palace Museum which were removed from China in 1949. Also, they could insist on the return of all other artifacts, archives, etc. relating to China in Taiwanese archives and museums (this could prove a major blow to Taiwanese tourism and academia, however).

5) They might also insist of compensation for China's gold reserves removed by the Nationalists in 1949 and used to build Taiwan's economy, but this is unlikely.

6) They might also insist on various other economic, political, and military treaties designed to keep an independent Taiwan from becoming a threat to Chinese security and keep them in China's sphere of influence (maybe a Chinese "commonwealth"?).

Some things that China might offer in exchange for reunification:

1) The most pressing fear of most Taiwanese people is that they would lose their hard-won democracy and civil rights. The solution might be a form of the "one country-two systems" that would allow special considerations for Taiwan. This system, called "one country-three systems" would allow Taiwan's political system to remain as it is until such time as China effects political reform that brings it up to Taiwan's standards. To that end, China has even offered to allow Taiwan to retain its own armed forces instead of a PLA garrison. It is possible that this agreement could be backed up by UN peacekeepers or by a multi-national agreement.

2) However, what Taiwan's political leaders worry most about is that they would trade the rule of a de facto country for the rule of a Chinese province. China could break the negotiations wide open by offering to allow Taiwanese political parties to participate in mainland elections phased in over a period of time. At the same time, Communists could be gradually phased into Taiwanese elections on the same schedule. The Nationalists would certainly be interested in an arrangement giving them a shot at regaining power on the mainland and might carry all of Taiwan into an agreement on this point alone. Whether the Communists will ever willingly give up their monopoly of power is another matter.

3) The Chinese could also offer to change their flag and other symbols to reflect a more politically diverse China (ie get rid of exclusively Communist symbolism). This would mainly be to soothe those die-hard Nationalists who cannot stand the idea of any reunification under even a democratic PRC. Therefore, it is doubtful that this would be a major issue in negotiations.

[BrianK]

All I have to offer is that China & Russia better be careful in what they do. A panel generated By Kofi Anan in the UN developed criteria about how to deal with other countries. A select portion of what they need to do be before anything takes place. Given the criteria how would Taiwan know if this was a rehearsal or real?

Use of force

The panel’s core
recommendation is twofold, addressing when force may be used and when force should be used. Force may lawfully be used by states, the panel declares, only in response to an imminent threat or when that use has been approved by the Security Council. Force should be used, by states or by the Security Council, only when its use is legitimate. “[A]nyone . . . involved in these decisions” should be guided by five “criteria of legitimacy” before using force: ( 1) whether the threat is sufficiently serious, ( 2) whether the purpose is proper, ( 3) whether every nonmilitary option has been exhausted, ( 4) whether the military action is proportionate to the threat, and ( 5) whether there is a reasonable chance of success.

Just because China & Russia are on the security council doesn't mean there won't be some kind of resolution thought up by the UN to ruin China's plans.

That alone "a resolution" will probably have China quaking in it's shoes. Maybe not with a military force the size of the population of America they might not "quake" at a UN resolution.

Thank goodness Kofi Anan had the foresight to gather a panel together to ward off just such problems.

[Woodmonkey]

I agree, Brian. Russia and China both know the power of a UN resolution!