Modeler Sees High Terror Attack Risk

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Modeler Sees High Terror Attack Risk

NU Online News Service, Oct. 19, 4:30 p.m. EDT</STRONG>—A risk modeling firm announced today that it sees an increased risk of a major terrorist attack involving a bombing occurring in the United States over the next year.

The forecast came from Risk Management Solutions, which said it saw a possible large “macro attack” requiring considerable resources and intended to provoke a political reaction.

RMS said while the overall chances of an attack have increased, the expected severity of an attack has decreased.

According to the firm, evidence suggests that a successful attack in the United States is now more likely to involve the intelligent deployment of smaller conventional weapons such as vehicle bombs, rather than a chemical, biological or nuclear weapon.

The increased risk, RMS said, is due to the proliferation of Islamic militants that are motivated and threatening the U.S., and the preparation time that groups have had to plan attacks that could come to maturity in 2005.

In addition, RMS noted that this year has seen a record number of attacks worldwide, a substantial increase in the number of disrupted suspected attack preparations within the U.S., and increased activity in Islamic militant recruitment.

RMS warned of a considerable increase in international terrorism threat generated by the Iraq war. Its advisory group cites repeated examples of European operatives visiting Iraq, becoming involved in attacks on U.S. forces, and learning guerilla tactics on the front lines before returning to Europe as now-radicalized and experienced terrorist operatives, ready to advance Jihadist causes in France, Germany, the UK and elsewhere.

Further, RMS said that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is busily creating a new network of terrorist cells throughout Europe, independent of those created by Al Qaeda.

The model firm reported that Al Qaeda itself continues to recruit new members, including a cell recently arrested in the UK that was comprised of highly educated UK-born Pakistani men who had not been through the Afghanistan training camps but were inspired by the rhetoric and ideology to plan their own attacks—truly 'second generation' Islamic militant terrorists.

RMS said the information collected for its overview also played a significant role in RMS' development of the first-ever Global Terrorism Risk Model.

Released in late September, the model is already being used to facilitate a Montpelier Re/OPIC facility that provides terrorism coverage to U.S. businesses investing in developing countries and transition economies.