GWOT Media Summary Feb 20

[RAMESES the Great]

U.S. Joint Forces Command
GWOT Media Summary
Operations Iraqi Freedom/Enduring Freedom/Noble Eagle
Current as of February 20, 2008

 New Developments
 Iraq Moves To Halt Use Of The Disabled In Bombings. The Iraqi government has a new tactic in its fight against the insurgency: clearing the streets of the mentally disabled and homeless. In a nationwide campaign launched Tuesday, the Iraqi Interior Ministry ordered police to round up beggars, itinerants and the mentally disabled, fearing they could be unwittingly used as suicide bombers by insurgent groups. "We want to prevent al-Qaeda from using the mentally handicapped to kill innocent people," said Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, an Interior Ministry spokesman, referring to the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government has said that a number of recent suicide attacks were carried out by the mentally impaired. Iraqi and U.S. officials said a suicide bombing this month that killed nearly 100 people was unwittingly carried out by two women with Down syndrome. (Washington Post – see attached)
 Trial Of 2 Ex-Officials In Iraq Is Delayed As Witnesses Fail To Show. The trial of two former government officials widely seen as a test of the impartiality of Iraq’s judicial system got off to an inauspicious start on Tuesday when it was delayed because crucial witnesses failed to appear. The absence of the witnesses was the latest in a series of events that appear aimed at derailing the case, in which the officials are charged with using the resources of the Health Ministry to carry out a campaign of sectarian kidnappings and killings. Witnesses have been intimidated; their families have been threatened; and information emerged this week suggesting that the trial’s outcome was fixed. One of the judges scheduled to hear the case had reportedly already agreed to find the men not guilty, according to officials close to the court. (New York Times – see attached)
 Iraq: 15 Police Killed In Rocket Blast. As many as 15 Iraqi policemen responding to an attack against U.S. bases were killed Tuesday when rockets, set to be launched from the back of a truck, exploded before the officers could defuse them, officials said. Four U.S. soldiers were wounded when the initial rockets slammed into their outposts in the capital, the military said, the second rocket attack against American targets in as many days. Nobody claimed responsibility for the anti-U.S. attacks, but in both cases the rockets apparently were launched from Shiite militia strongholds in the capital, raising concern about renewed activity ahead of a deadline for cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to renew a cease-fire order. (Lexington Herald-Leader/AP)
 Car Bomb Kills One In Afghanistan's Kandahar. A remote-controlled car bomb blast on Tuesday shook the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, still reeling from attacks in the area which have killed scores of people in the past two days. The blast was aimed at a police vehicle but missed it, witnesses and police said. One civilian was killed and three more were wounded in the explosion, police said. The attack came as many people in the city observed general mourning for more than 140 people killed in two suspected suicide raids in the past two days in other parts of Kandahar province, a stronghold of Taliban insurgents fighting the Afghan government and its Western backers. (Reuters)

 Military Coverage
 Effort To Shoot Down Satellite Could Inform Military Strategy. The Bush administration's attempt to shoot down an out-of-control spy satellite as early as Wednesday evening will help the military advance its anti-missile and anti-satellite planning and technology, according to space weapons experts and analysts. Both fields are of high interest to the military and of high concern for many other nations. While U.S. officials have depicted the attempt solely as a precaution against the slim chance that the satellite's hazardous rocket fuel could harm people on Earth, the test will inherently have spillover military consequences, the experts said. (Washington Post – see attached)
 U.S. Soldiers Likely To See Shorter Tours. Soldiers heading to war this summer are likely to see their tours shortened from 15 months to 12 months, even if troop cuts in Iraq are suspended in July as expected, the Army's top general said Tuesday. Gen. George Casey said that while his forces are strained by nearly seven years at war, the Army can maintain 15 combat brigades in battle for at least a couple of months after July while military commanders assess the situation in Iraq. "Fifteen deployed brigades, for us, is sustainable for a bit longer, certainly enough to cover what I would think the length of this pause might be," said Casey, the Army's chief of staff. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, have both said they favor a suspension in troop cuts after July to assess security gains before more forces leave the country. (New Orleans Times-Picayune/AP)
 Australia Says Job Is Done For Soldiers In Iraq. Australia's top military commander said on Wednesday the job of the country's combat soldiers in southern Iraq was done, bolstering a government decision to bring them home mid-year. Ahead of weekend talks in Canberra with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the planned withdrawal of 550 soldiers, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston said Iraqi forces had not needed Australian backup for two years now. Australia, a close U.S. ally, has around 1,000 troops in and around Iraq, and was an original member of the U.S.-led coalition which invaded the country in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein. Most Australian troops are in the stable south, which has largely escaped the bloodshed in other parts of the country and which is said by Western nations to be a model for Iraqi security control. (Reuters)

 Homeland Security
 Supreme Court Dismisses Challenge To Bush's Wiretapping Policy. The Supreme Court on Tuesday dismissed a challenge to President Bush's order authorizing the interception of some phone calls and e-mails within the United States, dealing another defeat to civil libertarians who say the president violated the law. The court's refusal to hear the case is a victory for the White House and the president's bold use of his powers as commander in chief. Though not a ruling on the legality of Bush's wiretapping policy, it all but forecloses a successful legal attack on it before the president leaves office early next year. In the meantime, Congress and the White House are negotiating new rules for electronic eavesdropping. (Los Angeles Times – see attached)
 Attorneys Want Evidence Thrown Out In Explosives Case. A sheriff's deputy acknowledged Tuesday that he used the terms "terrorist" and "Taliban" to describe a pair of Egyptian college students just before a search of their car turned up explosive materials in the trunk. Attorneys for the students, Ahmed Abdellatif Sherif Mohamed and Youssef Samir Megahed, say that Berkeley County, S.C., sheriff's deputy James Lamar Blakely didn't have probable cause or consent to search the car after pulling them over for speeding Aug. 4. They're arguing that Blakely conducted the search primarily because the two students were obviously of Middle Eastern descent and had copies of the Quran in the car. The defense contends all the evidence found during the search should be thrown out for their upcoming trial on charges of illegally transporting explosives. (Florida Times-Union/AP)

 World Developments
 Castro Circle Likely To Hold Power After His Resignation. Fidel Castro, bedridden for 19 months, on Tuesday gave up the almost unlimited power he has wielded in Cuba for nearly 50 years, but whether the surprise announcement represented a historic change or a symbolic political maneuver remained unclear. It is expected that his brother Raúl, 76, will be officially named president, and some experts consider him more pragmatic. Raúl Castro has talked about bringing more accountability to government and possibly working to improve relations with the United States. But since taking over temporarily in the summer of 2006, he has largely operated in his brother’s shadow, and, except for facilitating huge investments by Canadian and European resort developers in Cuba, he has brought about little change. (New York Times – see attached)
 Pakistan Remakes Its Political Landscape. A new political era dawned in Pakistan on Tuesday as partial results from Monday's parliamentary elections showed the opposition scoring a landslide win, the party allied with President Pervez Musharraf conceded defeat, and secular candidates ousted religious parties in the volatile northwest. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who heads the pro-government Pakistan Muslim League-Q, said his party would "accept the results with an open heart" and "sit on the opposition benches" in the new Parliament. By Tuesday evening, with most of the vote counted, the two major opposition parties had won 154 of the 272 elected seats in the National Assembly, compared with 38 for the PML-Q. In all, the assembly has 342 seats. (Washington Post – see attached)
 Nuclear Plans Are Peaceful, Says Larijani. Iran’s former top security official has said the United Nations watchdog investigating Tehran’s nuclear plans now has all the information it needs to establish that the program is of a peaceful nature. Ali Larijani was one of the architects of the so-called “work plan” agreed with the International Atomic Energy Agency in August. It was designed to answer all outstanding questions about Iran’s covert nuclear program dating from the 1980s but was opposed by those, including the U.S., who saw it as a diversion from attempts to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment. An eagerly anticipated report by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, on the progress of the work plan is due to be circulated to diplomats later this week. (London Financial Times – see attached)
 NATO Troops Called In As Mobs Torch Checkpoints On Kosovan Border. NATO peacekeepers were forced into action for the first time since Kosovo declared independence after Serbs attacked and set fire to official checkpoints on the border with Serbia. More than 1,000 Serbs, including women and children, had met at the border to stage a demonstration rejecting Kosovo’s secession. But the crowd, who were joined by another group from Serbia proper, quickly grew violent and attacked the two checkpoints at Banja and Jarinje guarded by ethnic Serb members of Kosovo’s multi-ethnic police force. Kosovan police and their UN counterparts had to withdraw and call for help from NATO forces. Armored vehicles packed with French troops arrived to block off the road leading north to Serbia, while NATO helicopters buzzed overhead. (London Times)
 U.S.: N. Korean Nuclear Talks Not At Stalemate. A top U.S. envoy denied Wednesday that talks on ridding North Korea of nuclear weapons were at a stalemate, saying the United States still seeks a full accounting of Pyongyang's past atomic activity. North Korea is required to give a complete declaration of its nuclear programs under a deal reached last year with the U.S. and regional powers, in exchange for aid and other concessions. North Korea insists it has already done so, but the U.S. says Pyongyang is trying to gloss over known facts from its long history of seeking to develop nuclear arms. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said Wednesday that North Korea insisted in a meeting this week in Beijing that it is not currently sharing nuclear technology with any other nations. (USA Today/AP)
 PA Official: If Talks Fail, We Should Declare Independence. A top aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Wednesday the Palestinians should consider declaring an independent state unilaterally if peace talks with Israel continue to falter. Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the Palestinian negotiating team with the Israelis, said that if they could not reach a deal with Israel, the Palestinians could consider declaring independence like Kosovo did on Sunday. "If things are not going in the direction of actually halting settlement activities, if things are not going in the direction of continuous and serious negotiations, then we should take the step and announce our independence unilaterally," he said. Meanwhile, chief Palestinian negotiator Sa'eb Erekat said late Tuesday that despite Israeli claims, Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did in fact discuss the topic of Jerusalem during their meeting earlier that evening. (Haaretz)

 Public Opinion
 Majority Still Favors Timetable For Troop Withdrawal. Roughly one year after the United States began increasing the number of troops it has in Iraq, Americans give the "surge" their most positive assessment to date. Nevertheless, basic attitudes about the war are largely unchanged, including views about setting a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal. The majority of Americans continue to favor a timetable for withdrawal, though relatively few favor a rapid withdrawal, similar to what Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is advocating. Six in 10 express opposition to the war effort more generally. According to the poll, 43% of Americans say the surge of U.S. troops in Iraq is making the situation there better, a slight increase from 40% in late November, but up more substantially from 34% in early November. This is the most positive review of the surge Gallup has measured since it began. 35% now say the surge is not making much difference, and just 21% say it is making things worse. (Gallup)

* AP = Associated Press UPI = United Press International KR = Knight Ridder

Please contact the U.S. Joint Forces Command (J00P) Public Affairs Office (757) 836-6554 ~ fax: (757) 836-6561 to report non-receipt of this product or to change your e-mail address.

Iraq Moves To Halt Use Of The Disabled In Bombings
Washington Post
February 20, 2008

The Iraqi government has a new tactic in its fight against the insurgency: clearing the streets of the mentally disabled and homeless. In a nationwide campaign launched Tuesday, the Iraqi Interior Ministry ordered police to round up beggars, itinerants and the mentally disabled, fearing they could be unwittingly used as suicide bombers by insurgent groups. "We want to prevent al-Qaeda from using the mentally handicapped to kill innocent people," said Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, an Interior Ministry spokesman, referring to the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government has said that a number of recent suicide attacks were carried out by the mentally impaired. Iraqi and U.S. officials said a suicide bombing this month that killed nearly 100 people was unwittingly carried out by two women with Down syndrome.

Khalaf said Iraqi law already prohibits beggars and the mentally disabled from "hanging around in the streets." He said beggars younger than 18 would be brought to shelters and adult professional panhandlers would be charged with crimes. The mentally disabled would be taken to hospitals, he said. "These people with mental defects can cause a lot of damage if they are left on the streets and taken advantage of by al-Qaeda," Khalaf said. "Their proper place is in the hospitals." Rear Adm. Gregory J. Smith, a U.S. military spokesman, said in an e-mail that the U.S.-led coalition was "aware of the Ministry of Interior's efforts to try and protect homeless and mentally impaired citizens from becoming the unwitting victims of al-Qaeda in Iraq. It is our understanding that the MOI intends to transfer these, the most vulnerable of Iraq's people, to the Ministry of Work and Social Affairs." The campaign got off to a slow start. News of the crackdown leaked out, Khalaf said, and all the beggars and mentally disabled people "disappeared" from the streets. "We couldn't arrest anybody because they were not available," he said. "But we will continue our campaign."

Also Tuesday, the trial of high-ranking former officials accused of letting Shiite militias use hospitals and ambulances to kill and kidnap civilians was postponed. Judge Abdul Satar Ghafur al-Bayrkdar, the spokesman for the Iraqi judicial system, said the case would be delayed until March 2 because a number of witnesses failed to show up for the trial of Hakim al-Zamili, a former deputy minister of health, and Brig. Gen. Hamid Hamza Alwan Abbas al-Shamari, a former top security official for the ministry. Both are accused of having ties to the Mahdi Army, the powerful militia of anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. The case has been viewed as a test of the judicial system's ability to deal with senior officials, particularly Shiites whose support is crucial to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. In the evening, at least five Iraqi police officers were killed and 10 wounded when they came upon insurgents in a truck firing rockets and mortars at a U.S. military outpost in eastern Baghdad, U.S. officials said. The truck exploded after the insurgents left, causing the injuries. Three American troops were injured from rocket or mortar fire on the base, U.S. officials said.

Trial Of 2 Ex-Officials In Iraq Is Delayed As Witnesses Fail To Show
New York Times
February 20, 2008

The trial of two former government officials widely seen as a test of the impartiality of Iraq’s judicial system got off to an inauspicious start on Tuesday when it was delayed because crucial witnesses failed to appear. The absence of the witnesses was the latest in a series of events that appear aimed at derailing the case, in which the officials are charged with using the resources of the Health Ministry to carry out a campaign of sectarian kidnappings and killings. Witnesses have been intimidated; their families have been threatened; and information emerged this week suggesting that the trial’s outcome was fixed. One of the judges scheduled to hear the case had reportedly already agreed to find the men not guilty, according to officials close to the court. Still, the court has moved methodically forward, seemingly without government interference, despite the politically charged atmosphere around the case. When the information about the trial judge was reported to the judicial authorities in the last few days, a senior judge removed him, the officials said.

The case, which will resume on March 2, is being closely watched because it would be the first full-blown trial of high-ranking Shiite officials for sectarian crimes, including murder and kidnapping, which carry the death penalty. Sunnis especially see it as a measure of the Shiite-dominated government’s ability to deliver impartial justice. The defendants, former Deputy Health Minister Hakim al-Zamili and Brig. Gen. Hameed al-Shammari, who led the ministry’s security service, are charged with running militias that killed and kidnapped hundreds of Sunnis in hospitals run by the Health Ministry and other facilities in 2005 and 2006. They will be tried for a handful of murders and kidnappings under the 2005 antiterrorism statute, which prohibits sectarian violence. “The most important thing here is that law should be above everybody: it should be separate from the sectarianism and partisanship that hurt all Iraqis deeply,” said Omar Abdul Sattar, a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, the largest Sunni party in Parliament. “It will be really significant if this trial is held according to the law and if everybody gets his fair punishment,” he said. “People don’t want more bloodshed. They want a real law that covers everybody equally.”

For the Iraqi government, the trial is particularly delicate because during the period in question, the government relied on support from the anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia was involved in death squad operations. The two men accused in the case are said to have used a militia connected to him in their crimes. The government, however, has been quietly supportive of the trial, allowing it to go forward despite having the power to block it. The government has allocated $80 million for an ultra-secure Rule of Law complex, which gives judges and others involved in some felony and corruption cases, including this one, a safe place to live, largely insulated from threats and violence. The defendants say they are not guilty, according to one of their lawyers, Abu Firas al-Mutairi. He said Mr. Zamili was a “devout man, and it is impossible for a Muslim to kill a Muslim.” “I would not defend him if I had even a faint thread of suspicion, because this is about the reputation of a movement,” he said, referring to Mr. Sadr’s movement.

The Health Ministry at the time was controlled by people loyal to Mr. Sadr. At about the time the two men were arrested, in February and March of 2007, the government was distancing itself from Mr. Sadr. His ministers withdrew from the government shortly after the arrests, making it somewhat easier for the trial to proceed. However, Mr. Sadr’s movement remains a formidable force both politically and on the street, and many Sadrists agree with Mr. Mutairi, the defense lawyer, that the effort to put Mr. Zamili on trial is an effort to tarnish the entire movement. “It is a political charge, criminally framed,” Mr. Mutairi said. “It is motivated by all the parties that abhor the Sadr movement, starting with the occupation forces.” Of the nine major prosecution witnesses, seven have been intimidated, by means including by death threats, said a United States Army judge advocate general who is advising Iraqi judicial officials. About half were issued American visas for themselves and their families for their safety, said another official close to the court. The chief investigative judge was moved for his own safety and that of his family.

Evidence in the case, in the Central Criminal Court, is expected to show that the resources of the Health Ministry were co-opted to carry out sectarian kidnappings and killings and to enrich a small group of people. People close to the ministry or working in ministry-run hospitals during that period paint a frightening portrait of ambulances being used to ferry weapons as well as kidnapping victims; patients being pulled out of their beds or being refused treatment because of their sect; and facilities being used to torture and detain people. Munthir al-Mahdawi recounted the last day he saw his brother, the Diyala Province health director, Ali al-Mahdawi, providing a chilling sketch of how the militias operated. Ali al-Mahdawi, a Sunni, had been nominated for the post of deputy health minister by the Iraqi Islamic Party. On June 12, 2006, he, his brother and three bodyguards made the trip to Baghdad. Ali al-Mahdawi and the bodyguards went into the ministry and were never seen again. Mr. Mahdawi said he had given testimony in the case and had not been threatened but that three other people who were with him that day were asked to come to a police station associated with Mr. Sadr’s militia. Instead, the three went into hiding. “My brother wasn’t a sectarian man,” Mr. Mahdawi said. “There were only five Sunnis in the hospital he runs, and the rest of the staff were all Shiites. He didn’t allow anyone in the hospital to speak in a sectarian way. “The only thing I hope for in this trial is to have justice done.”

Effort To Shoot Down Satellite Could Inform Military Strategy
Washington Post
February 20, 2008

The Bush administration's attempt to shoot down an out-of-control spy satellite as early as Wednesday evening will help the military advance its anti-missile and anti-satellite planning and technology, according to space weapons experts and analysts. Both fields are of high interest to the military and of high concern for many other nations. While U.S. officials have depicted the attempt solely as a precaution against the slim chance that the satellite's hazardous rocket fuel could harm people on Earth, the test will inherently have spillover military consequences, the experts said. To accomplish this week's task, for example, the Navy has modified its Aegis anti-missile radar system for satellite tracking, making clear that a system designed for missile defense can be transformed into an anti-satellite system in a short time. The attempted shoot-down will also enable the Pentagon to practice using, in an urgent scenario, key elements of its space defense apparatus, including the Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and its sophisticated space identification, tracking and targeting system.

The attempt will further provide an unscripted opportunity to see whether ship-based missiles can blow up the satellite just as it reenters Earth's atmosphere -- a key moment in any attempt to intercept an intercontinental missile that might someday be launched against the United States. "Whatever their motivation for shooting down the satellite, it's clear that this will be quite useful to the military," said Joan Johnson-Freese, an expert on military space issues and a department head of the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. The targeting of the satellite follows several decades of effort by the Defense Department to develop weaponry to shoot down enemy satellites or missiles. In 1985, the Air Force successfully tested an air-launched missile to shoot down a satellite, and in 2004, it called for ensuring American "space superiority" in an official policy statement, a phrase meant to cover the denial of enemy access to space when needed.

The Pentagon now spends more than $12 billion annually to develop weapons capable of shooting down missiles entering or leaving space, but it has no dedicated U.S. anti-satellite weapons program in its latest unclassified budget. The military has also worked on a laser project in New Mexico that could have anti-satellite capabilities, and has launched two small satellites that independent experts speculate could be modified to attack, or defend, larger spacecraft. International treaties, opposition from Congress and concerns about future space debris from anti-satellite tests have all complicated these efforts. The incoming spy satellite, some believe, offers an opportunity to avoid some of those constraints and to test what amounts to an anti-satellite defense. The Navy has said that it may take as many as three shots at the satellite, and Johnson-Freese said "that will give them data they've never had before," adding: "They're taking a missile defense system and using it as an anti-satellite system, and now they'll be able to see how well it works."

David Wright, a senior scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said "there's a real concern among people here and in other nations that the U.S. is trying to develop space weapons in the guise of other systems." The plan to shoot down the satellite, he says, "fuels the flames for those who think we want to build anti-satellite capabilities." Both China and Russia have criticized the planned satellite intercept. Paul B. Stares, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who has written books about anti-satellite technology and space security, said the skills to be demonstrated in the attempt emphasize how important military activity in space has become. "It's hard to imagine how, as the use of space for military purposes increases, the interest in anti-satellite weaponry won't increase at a similar pace," he said. Stares said that the first American anti-satellite weapons in the early 1960s were nuclear-armed and designed to destroy or disable satellites across vast expanses of space. Nuclear tests in the atmosphere, however, made clear that these weapons were impractical, because the explosions knocked out useful satellites as well as the targets and severely disrupted ground communications. The United States and former Soviet Union signed a treaty banning nuclear tests in space in 1963.

The United States and Russia have intermittently pursued anti-satellite programs since then, and also have occasionally respected informal moratoriums on testing. The Russian program involved launching smaller craft to follow a target and get close enough to blow it up. Early last year, China demonstrated its own capability by shooting a ground-based missile at an old satellite 600 miles in space. That test produced thousands of pieces of potentially damaging space debris and brought condemnation from much of the world. The potential vulnerability of U.S. satellites to foreign weaponry is well known to officials at home and abroad. When asked last week about Chinese and Russian capabilities to harm our satellites, Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, told the House Armed Services Committee, "It would not be that difficult to inflict significant, serious damage to our capabilities over [a] couple of days." Since the United States abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, both China and Russia have pushed for a new treaty that would ban weapons in space. The United States has opposed the proposal at the United Nations disarmament conference.

Supreme Court Dismisses Challenge To Bush's Wiretapping Policy
Los Angeles Times
February 20, 2008

The Supreme Court on Tuesday dismissed a challenge to President Bush's order authorizing the interception of some phone calls and e-mails within the United States, dealing another defeat to civil libertarians who say the president violated the law. The court's refusal to hear the case is a victory for the White House and the president's bold use of his powers as commander in chief. Though not a ruling on the legality of Bush's wiretapping policy, it all but forecloses a successful legal attack on it before the president leaves office early next year. In the meantime, Congress and the White House are negotiating new rules for electronic eavesdropping. From the beginning, this dispute has turned not on whether phone calls or e-mails can be intercepted but on whether a judge must approve it. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 said the president may order secret wiretapping within the United States to catch foreign agents or terrorists, but only with the approval of a special court.

Shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, Bush secretly bypassed this law and ordered the National Security Agency to intercept messages coming into or going out of this country if it "reasonably believed" they were linked to terrorism. The president said he did so to protect the nation from another attack, and he did not inform the FISA judges of the new policy. Bush also argued that his authority as commander in chief gave him the power to act on his own in the nation's defense. Lawyers for the American Civil Liberties Union went to court, hoping to win a ruling declaring that Bush had overstepped his powers. "The president is bound by the laws that Congress enacts. He may with disagree with those laws, but he may not disobey them," they said in the appeal to the Supreme Court. But Bush's lawyers successfully invoked two legal doctrines making it difficult to challenge the government's anti-terrorism policies.

First, they said, challengers must show that they had their phone calls or e-mails intercepted. Otherwise, they have no "standing" to sue because they have no injury to complain of. Second, the government said, the entire program was secret, and under the "state secrets privilege," plaintiffs cannot obtain information on whether they were targeted for surveillance. When combined, the two doctrines make it almost impossible for most challengers to win a hearing in court. "They say you need certain information to proceed. And that is exactly the information the government won't give you," said Jameel Jaffer, director of the ACLU's National Security Program. "If you accept these doctrines, this program is entirely immune from judicial review. It's hard to be optimistic today." One legal expert said it made perfect sense for the court to refuse the case. "This is not a surprise," said Douglas W. Kmiec, a law professor at Pepperdine University who served in the Reagan administration. "The program under review no longer exists, Congress is in the midst of reauthorizing the new version of it, and the Supreme Court already has a docket full of tough cases," such as the appeals of Guantanamo detainees.

Tuesday's ruling was only the latest defeat for those fighting the Bush administration in court. In October, the high court turned away an ACLU challenge to the "state secrets" doctrine on behalf of a German car salesman, Khalid el-Masri, who said he was wrongly abducted, imprisoned and tortured by the CIA in a case of mistaken identity. The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in November rejected a legal challenge to NSA wiretapping from the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation. The ACLU filed its suit against the wiretapping policy in Detroit and cited as plaintiffs lawyers and journalists who had regular contact with persons under investigation by the government. The lawyers argued that they could not contact their clients for fear of being overheard. Acting on this suit, a judge in Detroit declared Bush's policy unconstitutional in a strongly worded opinion.
Last July, however, the U.S. appeals court in Cincinnati overturned that ruling and threw out the lawsuit in a 2-1 decision. The majority said the plaintiffs did not have standing to sue because they could not show they were targeted for surveillance. In October, the ACLU appealed the issue to the Supreme Court. U.S. Solicitor Gen. Paul D. Clement urged the justices to dismiss the case in part because Congress and the president were negotiating new legal rules for wiretapping. There is no need to "wade into such sensitive issues in light of the facts that petitioners have failed to establish standing and that the program they seek to enjoin . . . no longer exists," Clement said. The case ended quietly Tuesday when the justices issued a one-line order turning down the case of ACLU vs. NSA.

Castro Circle Likely To Hold Power After His Resignation
New York Times
February 20, 2008

Fidel Castro, bedridden for 19 months, on Tuesday gave up the almost unlimited power he has wielded in Cuba for nearly 50 years, but whether the surprise announcement represented a historic change or a symbolic political maneuver remained unclear. It is expected that his brother Raúl, 76, will be officially named president, and some experts consider him more pragmatic. Raúl Castro has talked about bringing more accountability to government and possibly working to improve relations with the United States. But since taking over temporarily in the summer of 2006, he has largely operated in his brother’s shadow, and, except for facilitating huge investments by Canadian and European resort developers in Cuba, he has brought about little change.

Under Cuba’s Constitution, a newly chosen legislative body, the National Assembly, is scheduled to select a 31-member Council of State on Sunday, including a new president. Fidel Castro said he would not accept the position even if it were offered to him. In a letter of resignation read over early morning radio and television programs across the country, the 81-year-old Mr. Castro — who has appeared frail in the few videos released by the Cuban government — was said to be too ill to continue as head of state and would not stand in the way of others who were ready to take over, a sentiment he first expressed last December. Experts on Cuban politics say the decision on a successor remains in the hands of the Castro brothers and their inner circle, many of whom hold cabinet positions. Others said that a younger president could be brought in or that the posts of prime minister and president could be divided between Raúl Castro and one of the ministers.

It was not clear what role, if any, Fidel Castro would play in a new government, or whether he would retain other powerful positions, including head of the Communist Party. But he signaled that he was not yet ready to completely exit the stage. It is not even certain that Mr. Castro was well enough to actually write the letter of resignation. Doubts have arisen over his health and whether he could have written a string of essays that have been published over the last year and a half in Granma, the Communist Party organ. “I am not saying goodbye to you,” said Mr. Castro in the letter written under his name and addressed to the Cuban people. “I only wish to fight as a soldier of ideas.” The confusion of analysts in both Cuba and the United States about the extent to which Mr. Castro would withdraw from day-to-day government operations or continue to wield power from behind the scenes was reflected in the mix of opinions of people from the luxury beaches at the seaside resort of Vardar to the central park of Old Havana.

There was little evidence in the streets of the capital and in other cities to suggest that a monumental change was taking place in the Cuban hierarchy. But that could be because the accrued experience of state security officials made open demonstrations unlikely and assured that most reactions to the news would remain as covert as a high-five between passing friends on a crowded street, an act viewed in Havana. Cuba’s leading dissident tried to dampen expectations. “This isn’t news,” said the dissident, Lizard Sanchez, after learning from friends that Mr. Castro was ceding power. “It was expected and it does nothing to change the human rights situation, which continues to be unfavorable, or to end the one-party state. There’s no reason to celebrate.” The pace of ordinary Cuban life continued. In Vardar, workers collected garbage and cleaned pools as they normally would. On the highway, workers whitewashed barriers. In the seaside city of Matanzas, Elaina Lopez, a 55-year-old transportation inspector who had heard the news on her way to work, said she expected the revolution to continue, with change coming slowly but surely. “There is no surprise,” Ms. Lopez said. She added, “This is the correct decision,” referring to Mr. Castro’s declaration.

In Havana, an older generation of Cubans who maintained their admiration for Mr. Castro and his revolution, despite the crumbling condition of the city, were disappointed. Alba, 67, a retired nurse who, like many Cubans, was afraid to give her full name, told Agence France-Presse that she had expected Mr. Castro to be president for life and to “die with his boots on.” However, members of a younger generation who had grown tired of what they saw as promises for a better life that never materialized, said they hoped there might be significant change, although their hopes were based more on wishful thinking than on a realistic view of the political situation. “It took a long time, but he finally said it and that’s fantastic news,” said Armando, a 28-year-old student who said it was about time Mr. Castro let go of power. And there were many Cubans like Evelyn, 45, who neither cheered nor cried at the news that Mr. Castro would step aside. “I am not surprised and I don’t feel sad either,” Evelyn said. “Everyone knew he was going to resign. Fidel is an athlete of politics. He knows what he does.”

In trying to assess the future, political analysts pointed to signs that Raúl Castro had a pragmatic streak. As acting president, he has encouraged more debate about Cuba’s economic woes, sponsoring a series of town-hall-style meetings last fall to allow people to speak freely about their economic woes and the limits on their rights to travel. He has also brought up issues his brother never addressed. He has lambasted farmers for being inefficient. He has criticized the high cost of milk. He has acknowledged that the salaries the Cuban government pays are woefully low and do not meet the minimum needs of a family. He has criticized corruption, even letting state-controlled newspapers publish investigative articles about the looting and bad management practices at many state-controlled companies. The younger Mr. Castro also has a reputation as a manager who demands results from his cabinet members. Unlike Fidel, who liked to manage every detail of government himself, Raúl has delegated authority and held his cabinet ministers accountable.

After decades during which Mr. Castro’s grip seemed unbreakable, uncertainties arose in July 2006. Mr. Castro, suffering from an undisclosed abdominal ailment, had emergency surgery and temporarily handed over power to his brother. In Tuesday’s letter, which was also published in Granma, Mr. Castro said he did not step down earlier to avoid dealing a blow to the Cuban government before the people were ready for a traumatic change “in the middle of the battle” with the United States over control of the Cuba’s future. “To prepare the people for my absence, psychologically and politically, was my first obligation after so many years of struggle,” he said. More than 70 percent of Cubans were born after he seized power in 1959. President Bush, the 10th president to cross swords with Mr. Castro, has tried to tighten the longstanding United States embargo and increase international pressure on Cuba during his time in office, restricting family visits to once every three years and putting a cap on the amount of remittances Cuban-Americans can send to relatives in Cuba.

Mr. Bush, traveling in Rwanda on a tour of Africa, reacted to Mr. Castro’s decision to give up power by saying that the resignation should be the beginning of a democratic transition in Cuba leading to free elections. “The United States will help the people of Cuba realize the blessings of liberty,” he said. Mr. Bush called for Cuba to release political prisoners and to begin building “institutions necessary for democracy that eventually will lead to free and fair elections.” Analysts in the United States say that even after Fidel Castro dies, Raúl Castro, as president, would still find himself under tremendous pressure to sustain his brother’s legacy, while at the same time working to break it down and provide a measure of economic and political freedom for the Cuban people. If the National Assembly on Sunday unexpectedly selects someone other than Raúl Castro — the names of the Assembly’s president, Ricardo Alarcon, Vice President Carlos Lager and Foreign Secretary Felipe Perez Roué are mentioned frequently — it could represent a sign that Cuba is more eager to accelerate change than is widely believed, including an improved relationship with Washington. The United States has stated that it would not negotiate with any Cuban government headed by either Fidel or Raúl Castro.

Pakistan Remakes Its Political Landscape
Washington Post
February 20, 2008

A new political era dawned in Pakistan on Tuesday as partial results from Monday's parliamentary elections showed the opposition scoring a landslide win, the party allied with President Pervez Musharraf conceded defeat, and secular candidates ousted religious parties in the volatile northwest. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who heads the pro-government Pakistan Muslim League-Q, said his party would "accept the results with an open heart" and "sit on the opposition benches" in the new Parliament. By Tuesday evening, with most of the vote counted, the two major opposition parties had won 154 of the 272 elected seats in the National Assembly, compared with 38 for the PML-Q. In all, the assembly has 342 seats. The vote for the lower house was seen as a stinging rebuke of Musharraf. Anita Ashen, a lawyer and opposition party leader who has been under house arrest for three months, cast the result as a symbol of democracy. "General Musharraf represents the rule of man over law, and the resounding verdict of the people is that they yearn to be ruled by laws, not men," Ashen said.

The fallout from Monday's elections could have a major impact on relations between Pakistan and the United States, which has strongly backed Musharraf as a partner in counterterrorism efforts, despite growing frustration over his failure to stop Islamic extremists creating safe havens in Pakistan and fueling the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Pakistan was quiet Tuesday except for bursts of drumming, dancing and celebratory gunfire outside rural opposition party offices and fireworks after dark in some urban neighborhoods. People appeared mostly relieved that the elections had concluded with only limited violence and irregularities, while both winning and losing candidates spoke of the need for cooperation and peace. Despite widespread predictions that the government would try to rig the vote, monitors said the polling process went surprisingly smoothly, and the PML-Q's concession came quickly. Nevertheless, the emerging political landscape was far from clear. Neither of the two main opposition groups -- the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N -- gained a majority, and neither has a dominant candidate for prime minister, thus opening the door to complicated coalitions and deals.

The Pakistan People's Party swept its bastion of Sind province and won the highest number of seats in the National Assembly, benefiting from sympathy over the December assassination of its leader, Benazir Bhutto, as well as disenchantment with Mascara’s rule. Official but not final results showed the Pakistan People's Party with 88 seats, the Pakistan Muslim League-N with 66, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q with 38 and three smaller parties or groupings with 34. Asia Ali Zadora, Bhutto's widower and interim successor as party head, told reporters in Islamabad that the Pakistan People's Party would form a government "in the center and all the four provinces with the help of our allies." He said the party had yet to decide who would become the "leader of Parliament," presumably a reference to the prime minister's post. Naas Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N and a two-time prime minister, reached out Tuesday to the Pakistan People's Party, his organization's longtime arch rival, and to politicians who once backed Musharraf but have since excoriated him.

Sharif also called for Musharraf to step down in light of the public judgment against his rule. A former army general, Musharraf agreed under pressure to remove his uniform in November, becoming a civilian president, but many Pakistanis want him to bow out of politics completely. "The people have given their verdict," Sharif told reporters here, saying that political parties should "work together to get rid of dictatorship." Sharif, who was overthrown by Musharraf in 1999, returned from exile in November. Although legally barred from running for office, he led his party to a sweeping victory in its Punjab province stronghold. Musharraf has said he will work with any party that comes to power, but he has given no sign of being willing to leave office. The election results leave him with seriously diminished credibility, however, and if the opposition can build a large enough coalition to hold two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, he could be impeached. At this point, it is unclear how many lawmakers would favor impeachment. Zadora stopped short of calling for Musharraf to resign, saying it should be up to the new Parliament.

One party that scored a significant surprise win Monday was the progressive, ethnic-based Awaji National Party, which benefited from the poor performance of religious parties that had come to power in North-West Frontier Province five years ago. Its victory raised hopes of a new bulwark against growing Islamic militancy in the region bordering Afghanistan. "Our founding fathers laid the principle of nonviolence decades ago. That is something we badly need as a nation at this very moment," the Awaji National Party's leader, Sandbar Wail Khan, told jubilant supporters Tuesday in his home village near the northwestern city of Peshawar. Khan, a veteran ethnic Pashtu leader who lost his National Assembly seat to a religious candidate in 2002, regained it easily Monday. The party won at least eight seats in the assembly. Several U.S. lawmakers were in Pakistan to observe the vote. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), speaking to reporters, called the election "an opportunity for us to move from a policy that's been focused on a personality to one that's based upon an entire people." Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) called the vote a tribute to the Pakistani people's "unbelievable thirst for change and democracy."

In Washington, the Bush administration said U.S.-Pakistani relations would remain strong regardless of the election results. "We want to work with the new government. We expect we can work with the new government and have good cooperation with them," State Department spokesman Tom Casey said. "We've maintained ties to all the major political parties both before and during this electoral period and certainly expect to do so afterwards as well." Casey also called on the new Parliament to work closely with Musharraf. Many Pakistanis have expressed deep resentment of the continued U.S. support for Musharraf, even after he fired senior judges and imposed emergency rule in November. Ashen, the lawyer who has been under house arrest, said foreign governments must carefully assess their policies on Musharraf. He had been barred from speaking to the news media since November but was allowed to receive reporters in his law office Tuesday. "The West must see how singularly unpopular he is. If they try to hold on to him or stitch together alliances to support him, they will be swimming against the tide," said Ashen, a leader in the Pakistan People's Party. "We are with the West in the fight against terror, but the real, effective weapon in that fight is an empowered people with enforceable rights."

Nuclear Plans Are Peaceful, Says Larijani
London Financial Times
February 19, 2008

Iran’s former top security official has said the United Nations watchdog investigating Tehran’s nuclear plans now has all the information it needs to establish that the program is of a peaceful nature. Ali Larijani was one of the architects of the so-called “work plan” agreed with the International Atomic Energy Agency in August. It was designed to answer all outstanding questions about Iran’s covert nuclear program dating from the 1980s but was opposed by those, including the U.S., who saw it as a diversion from attempts to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment. An eagerly anticipated report by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the IAEA, on the progress of the work plan is due to be circulated to diplomats later this week.

“It is [the] IAEA that is important to us,” Mr. Larijani told the Financial Times in his first interview with the foreign media since resigning as nuclear negotiator in October. “We have finished answering all their... questions.” Mr. Larijani is still proud of the work plan – the fruit of more than two years of handling the nuclear brief and holding talks with Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. “It was the initiative by me, Mr. ElBaradei and Mr. Solana,” he said. He denied that his talks with Mr. Solana were one of the main reasons he was sidelined. “It is a wrong impression,” he said, adding that Iran was keen on any talks. Mr. Larijani said his resignation was linked instead to “differences on management mechanism” with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president. He refused to elaborate.

Regime insiders, however, say Mr. Larijani, described as a pragmatic conservative, believed the president’s radical approach had pushed Iran’s nuclear case on to the UN security council agenda, undermining his own more low-key efforts to find diplomatic ways – through talks with Europe and the IAEA – to maintain the nuclear program without suspension of uranium enrichment. His successor, Saeed Jalili, a close ally of Mr. Ahmadinejad, has not shown any particular interest in resolving the nuclear standoff through the Solana channel. Mr. Ahmadinejad has insisted that Iran recognize only the IAEA and no other negotiating tracks. The former negotiator criticized the five permanent members of the security council plus Germany for not waiting for Mr. ElBaradei’s report before drafting a third UN resolution earlier this month. “They have to continue it with shame,” he said. “It is a stubborn approach with no logic, which can have its impacts on our relations with IAEA.”

As one of the two representatives of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council – which is in charge of nuclear policies – Mr. Larijani has turned his attention to domestic politics in recent weeks. The 50-year-old politician will run for parliament on March 14 from the holy city of Qom. He said his intention was to help draft the country’s five-year development plan, carry out the 20-Year Perspective Plan – whose target is to make Iran the top economic power in the region – attract investments, tackle inflation and also give the 290-seat parliament a bigger role in diplomacy. “We should move forward with a scientific plan. Not everyone can have their own definition of development,” he said, in what appeared to be a clear rebuke of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s populism. “Parliament is where you can control, ask questions, get information and make changes.”

Analysts believe more moderate figures such as Mr. Larijani hope to use parliament as the launch pad to make Iran’s political atmosphere less radical and less vulnerable to international threats. His clerical links have helped Mr. Larijani retain key positions. He is the son of a senior cleric and son-in-law of another, both with deep roots in the political hierarchy and it is not surprising that his parliamentary campaign will be concentrated on Qom. Mr. Ahmadinejad has previously had strained relations with some of the Qom clerical establishment. Mr. Larijani is now also part of a tripartite team with Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf and Mohsen Rezaei, former Revolutionary Guards commander, trying to send more moderate figures to the legislative body. The next parliament could be “determining”, said Mr. Larijani. “The international situation is in transition and our country is important in the region. Iran can play a role.”