GWOT Media Summary Feb 8

[RAMESES the Great]

U.S. Joint Forces Command
GWOT Media Summary
Operations Iraqi Freedom/Enduring Freedom/Noble Eagle
Current as of February 8, 2008

 New Developments
 Shift In Tactics Aims To Revive Struggling Insurgency. The Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq is telling its followers to soften their tactics in order to regain popular support in the western province of Anbar, where Sunni tribes have turned against the organization and begun working with U.S. forces, according to group leaders and American intelligence officials. The new approach was outlined last month in an internal communiqué that orders members to avoid killing Sunni civilians who have not sympathized with the U.S.-backed tribesmen or the government. From internal documents and interviews with members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a picture emerges of an organization in disarray but increasingly aware that its harsh policies – such as punishing women who don't cover their heads – have eroded its popular support. (Washington Post – see attached)
 Paris Pledges More Troops For Afghanistan. France on Thursday eased simmering tensions within NATO over Afghanistan when its defense minister said it would send troops to the violent south of the country to help Canadian forces there. Canada has threatened to pull its 2,500 troops out of Kandahar province unless its NATO allies sent 1,000 more troops. After a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Vilnius, Hervé Morin, France’s defense minister, said: “I’ve said we’ll help the Canadians.” Tensions within the alliance have been heightened by the unwillingness of some countries, including Germany, Italy and Spain, to commit fighting troops to the south of Afghanistan. The tensions follow a request by NATO’s military commander in Afghanistan for 7,000 extra combat troops. (London Financial Times – see attached)
 NATO States Wrangle Over Afghanistan Troop Commitments. NATO defense ministers were set Friday for a second day of contentious talks on Afghanistan amid calls led by the United States and Britain for more frontline combat troops to fight resurgent Taliban forces. Ministers stuck to their positions on Thursday during talks burden-sharing in Afghanistan, a sensitive issue that threatens cohesion of the 26-nation transatlantic alliance. NATO's UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan has been confronted with an increasingly bloody insurgency campaign by Taliban militants, and commanders have sought more troops and weapons. (Agence France Presse)
 Iraqi Lawmakers Freeze Election Debate. Dozens of Iraqi legislators walked out of parliament Thursday to protest parts of a draft law that would lay out rules for provincial elections later this year, marking another potential setback for U.S.-backed proposals to ease Iraq's sectarian rifts. Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, meanwhile, warned his fighters to stick with his cease-fire order after U.S. and Iraqi raids in Baghdad's Sadr City, the main Shiite district and bastion of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia. The sweeps detained 15 suspected militants and left one person dead. The U.S. military said troops targeted ``criminal elements'' responsible for attacks with mortars and powerful roadside bombs that the Pentagon links to Iranian aid. In parliament, the walkout postponed a planned vote on the measure on redistributing power in Iraq. (The Guardian/AP)
 U.S. Sees Attacks By Iranian-Backed Groups Up In Iraq. Attacks by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq have increased in recent months, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday, casting doubt on the view Iran might have reduced its support for violence in the war. David Satterfield, the State Department's Iraq coordinator, said he believed Iran's strategy remained to force the United States to withdraw from Iraq at as high a price as possible. The United States has 158,000 troops in Iraq seeking to quell an insurgency and sectarian violence that erupted after the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled former dictator Saddam Hussein. Attacks across Iraq have fallen by 60 percent since June 2007, when President Bush's "surge" of 30,000 additional U.S. troops became fully deployed. (Reuters)
 Romney Suspends Presidential Campaign. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney suspended his bid for the Republican presidential nomination Thursday, saying if he continued it would "forestall the launch of a national campaign and be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win." "In this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror. This is not an easy decision. I hate to lose," he said. Romney made the announcement Thursday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. With Romney out, Sen. John McCain is locked in as the front-runner in the GOP race. The crowd booed when Romney mentioned McCain, saying, "I disagree with Sen. McCain on a number of issues." "But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and I agree with him on eliminating al Qaeda and terror worldwide," he said. (CNN)

 Military Coverage
 New Weight In Army Manual On Stabilization. The Army has drafted a new operations manual that elevates the mission of stabilizing war-torn nations, making it equal in importance to defeating adversaries on the battlefield. Military officials described the new document, the first new edition of the Army’s comprehensive doctrine since 2001, as a major development that draws on the hard-learned lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial military successes gave way to long, grueling struggles to establish control. It is also an illustration of how far the Pentagon has moved beyond the Bush administration’s initial reluctance to use the military to support “nation-building” efforts when it came into office. (New York Times – see attached)
 U.S. Military Loses Records For bin Laden's Driver. The U.S. military has lost a year's worth of records describing the Guantanamo confinement of Osama bin Laden's driver, a prosecutor said at the Yemeni captive's war court hearing on Thursday. Lawyers for the driver, Salim Ahmed Hamdan, asked for the records to support their argument that prolonged isolation and harassment at the Guantanamo prison have mentally impaired him and could affect his ability to aid in his defense against war crimes charges. "All known records have been produced with the exception of the 2002 Gitmo records," one of the prosecutors, Navy Lt. Cmdr. Timothy Stone, told the court. "They can't find it." He said the military was still looking for the records kept at the remote U.S. naval base in southeast Cuba, which he referred to by its nickname. (Reuters)

 Homeland Security
 Justice Dept. 'Cannot' Probe Waterboarding, Mukasey Says. The attorney general Thursday rejected growing congressional calls for a criminal investigation of the CIA's use of simulated drownings to extract information from its detainees, as Vice President Cheney called it a "good thing" that the CIA was able to learn what it did from those subjected to the practice. The remarks reflected a renewed effort by the Bush administration to defend its past approval of the interrogation tactic known as waterboarding, which some lawmakers, human rights experts and international lawyers have described as illegal torture. Testifying before the House Judiciary Committee, Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey said Justice Department lawyers concluded that the CIA's use of waterboarding in 2002 and 2003 was legal, and therefore the department cannot investigate whether a crime had occurred. (Washington Post – see attached)
 Official: Al-Qaida Near Tipping Point? Al-Qaida's embrace of violence may be undermining the terrorist group's support in the Muslim world, the nation's top intelligence official said Thursday. "The question becomes, are we reaching a tipping point to witness the decline of this radical behavior?" said Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell at a House Intelligence Committee hearing. "We don't know but we are watching it very closely." Most victims of al-Qaida bombings and attacks are Muslims, McConnell said. In Iraq, the violence perpetrated against Iraqis by insurgents associated with al-Qaida pushed local tribes to turn against the group and has led to improved security, he said, adding that the same pattern may take hold elsewhere. (San Jose Mercury News/AP)
 Terror Suspect To Be Sent To U.S. Britain's Home Office Thursday approved the extradition of an Islamic preacher who is accused of trying to establish a terrorist training camp in Oregon, a spokesman said. Abu Hamza al-Masri once led London's Finsbury Park Mosque, which was attended by both September 11 conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui and "shoe bomber" Richard Reid. One top British counterterrorism official described the mosque as a "honey pot for extremists." The Egyptian-born al-Masri was arrested on a U.S. extradition warrant in 2004, but the process was put on hold while he stood trial in Britain and appealed his convictions. Al-Masri has 14 days to appeal. If he does not, he will be sent to the U.S. within 28 days, a Home Office spokesman said. (Washington Times)

 World Developments
 Head Injury Killed Bhutto, Report Said To Find. Investigators from Scotland Yard have concluded that Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto died after hitting her head as she was tossed by the force of a suicide blast, not from an assassin’s bullet, officials who have been briefed on the inquiry said Thursday. The findings support the Pakistani government’s explanation of Ms. Bhutto’s death in December, an account that had been greeted with disbelief by Ms. Bhutto’s supporters, other Pakistanis and medical experts. Also on Thursday, the Pakistani government announced the arrest of two more suspects in connection with the assassination plot but gave few other details. Thousands of Ms. Bhutto’s supporters gathered in her hometown in southern Pakistan, marking the end of a 40-day mourning period. (New York Times – see attached)
 Israel To Intensify Strikes If Rocket Fire Continues. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak threatened Thursday to intensify military operations in the Gaza Strip if fighters continue using the Palestinian territory for rocket attacks on southern Israel. Earlier in the day, Israeli troops supported by tanks, artillery and fighter jets raided Gaza, killing six Palestinian gunmen, according to Palestinian and news service accounts. Also, a 42-year-old Palestinian high school chemistry teacher was killed when a shell hit a school just before classes started in the morning, said Jamil Suleiman, director of the hospital in the Gaza village of Beit Hanoun. Three 16-year-old Palestinian boys, all students, were wounded, Suleiman said. Israel denied targeting the school, saying it was firing at rocket teams that use the border village as a base for attacks on Israel. (Washington Post – see attached)
 Chad Curfew After Rebel Attacks. The Chad government has imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew in much of the country after rebels attacked the capital, N'Djamena, last weekend. The curfew applies in the capital and six provinces in the south and east, the prime minister announced. At least 100 civilians were killed in the fighting, aid workers say. Meanwhile, President Idriss Deby asked the European Union to deploy peacekeepers to the country "as quickly as possible". Rebel forces say they have regrouped near the town of Mongo, 600 km (375 miles) east of N'Djamena. (BBC)

 Public Opinion
 Most In Norway Support Afghan Mission. The majority of people in Norway are supportive of the country’s participation in the war on terror in Afghanistan, according to a poll by Norstat released by NRK. 57% of respondents back Norway’s role in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), while 32% oppose it. Close to 500 Norwegian soldiers are currently present in Afghanistan, working with ISAF. Last year alone, Norway pledged close to $91 million U.S. in aid for reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. (Angus Reid Global Monitor)

*AP = Associated Press UPI = United Press International KR = Knight Ridder

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Shift In Tactics Aims To Revive Struggling Insurgency
Washington Post
February 8, 2008

The Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq is telling its followers to soften their tactics in order to regain popular support in the western province of Anbar, where Sunni tribes have turned against the organization and begun working with U.S. forces, according to group leaders and American intelligence officials. The new approach was outlined last month in an internal communiqué that orders members to avoid killing Sunni civilians who have not sympathized with the U.S.-backed tribesmen or the government. From internal documents and interviews with members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a picture emerges of an organization in disarray but increasingly aware that its harsh policies -- such as punishing women who don't cover their heads -- have eroded its popular support. Over the past year, the group has been driven out of many of its strongholds. The group's leadership is now jettisoning some of its past tactics to refocus attacks on American troops, Sunnis cooperating closely with U.S. forces, and Iraq's infrastructure.

"Dedicate yourself to fighting the true enemy only, in order to avoid opening up new fronts against the Sunni Arabs," said the Jan. 13 communiqué, signed by the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer. "Do not close the door of repentance in the face of those Sunnis who turned against us," said the message, posted in Anbar mosques frequented by the group's followers. The communiqué does not order an end to attacks against Shiite Muslims, whom al-Qaeda in Iraq has long seen as heretics, and it was unclear whether the views of group members in Anbar would apply in parts of the country where al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters are more active. Iraqi officials have blamed the group for two bombings Feb. 1 in predominantly Shiite areas of Baghdad that officials said killed as many as 100 people. American intelligence officials said the communiqué is consistent with the past leadership style of Muhajer, an Egyptian also known as Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who took command of the group after his predecessor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed in a U.S. airstrike in June 2006.

"Zarqawi did a lot of just indiscriminate killing -- it didn't matter when, where, why or how," said one senior intelligence analyst who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity under military ground rules. "Masri is more picking his targets and trying to get away from the massive indiscriminate killings, because it created a big black eye for al-Qaeda in Iraq." The U.S. military says it destroyed much of the leadership of al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2007, killing 2,400 suspected members and capturing 8,800, while pushing the group almost completely out of Baghdad and Anbar province. Although U.S. officials and their Sunni allies caution that al-Qaeda in Iraq remains dangerous and could find ways to regenerate, they assert that the group now is largely a spent force. "We do not deny the difficulties we are facing right now," said Riyadh al-Ogaidi, a senior leader, or emir, of al-Qaeda in Iraq in the Garma region of eastern Anbar province. "The Americans have not defeated us, but the turnaround of the Sunnis against us had made us lose a lot and suffer very painfully."

'We Made Many Mistakes'

Resting on a blanket in the garden of a squat concrete house in Garma, Ogaidi lamented al-Qaeda in Iraq's reversal of fortunes over the past year. Ogaidi, 39, once traveled with 20 bodyguards in a four-vehicle convoy. But during the recent interview, he was nearly alone, wearing a white cap on his bald head and a gray dishdasha, or floor-length tunic, to disguise himself as a poor villager. "We made many mistakes over the past year," including the imposition of a strict interpretation of Islamic law, he told a Washington Post special correspondent. Al-Qaeda in Iraq followers broke the fingers of men who smoked, whipped those who imbibed alcohol and banned shops from selling shampoo bottles that displayed images of women -- actions that turned Sunnis against the group. Ogaidi said the total number of al-Qaeda in Iraq members across the country has plummeted from about 12,000 in June 2007 to about 3,500 today.

By all accounts, the number of foreign fighters entering Iraq has plunged. The U.S. military said the number sneaking in from Syria has dropped from 110 a month in late summer to about 40 to 50 a month now. Ogaidi said the total number of foreign fighters in Iraq is "in the tens -- not more than 200." Al-Qaeda in Iraq is a predominantly Iraqi group, but the U.S. military says it is led by Arabs from outside the country. Rear Adm. Gregory J. Smith, a spokesman for the U.S. military in Baghdad, said Syria has increased border patrols and checkpoints, and Saudi Arabia, where many of the fighters are from, has tightened its exit visa policies. He also said al-Qaeda in Iraq's violence against civilians -- 4,552 attacks last year killed 3,870 people and injured 17,815, he said -- made it much more difficult for foreigners to live safely in the country. "Al-Qaeda has alienated the very people it needed for support," he said.

The insurgent group is now reaching out to disaffected Sunni tribal leaders in a bid to win back their support, even as it attacks Sunnis working closely with the Americans, according to Abdullah Hussein Lehebi, an emir from the Amiriyah section of Anbar south of Fallujah. "In exchange, we would not target them again and would respect the authority of the tribal leaders," he said in an interview with a Post special correspondent at a date orchard near the Euphrates River in Amiriyah. Lehebi, 47, whose nom de guerre is Abu Khalid al-Dulaimi, said the group's main focus now was to attack bridges, oil pipelines and telephone towers, as well as U.S. troops and their Sunni allies.

Some members of al-Qaeda in Iraq blame Muhajer, the group's leader, for their current predicament. Ogaidi said Zarqawi traveled constantly around the country to visit senior leaders and ensure that wounded fighters received compensation from the group. But he said Muhajer is rarely seen and doesn't take care of members such as Rafid, whose leg was amputated after an attack in the Garma region. Rafid now sits at home, hungry and unable to work, Ogaidi said. "Everyone would be scared of Zarqawi as a tough leader," he said. "Whereas Muhajer has now failed in imposing his personality on the organization. He is mild-mannered and weak."

Disheartened Fighters

Al-Qaeda in Iraq's change in tactics comes in response to the turmoil and self-doubt that arose among its members as they lost the support of Sunni tribesmen, a process vividly described in a letter by an unnamed al-Qaeda in Iraq emir that the U.S. military said it seized last November. "This created weakness and psychological defeat," the emir wrote. "This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight. The morale of the fighters went down." The emir cited Muhammad, a 6-foot-3 computer major born in a Western European country, who crossed the Syrian border about a year ago with dreams of carrying out a suicide bombing in Iraq. But when he arrived in Anbar, there was no mission for him. "He was discouraged and asked his emir to transfer him to another district," the emir wrote to senior leaders in the 49-page letter, of which four full pages and other excerpts were provided to The Post by U.S. military officials. "His request was denied."

The letter said Muhammad was eventually summoned to carry out a small raid on a local "apostate resident," only to be shot in the arm. U.S. troops later found the village in which Muhammad was hiding and surrounded it. "He was killed by a sniper and died," the letter says. The emir said potential suicide bombers were told by coordinators on the border that they could choose a suicide mission, which would kill 20 to 30 U.S.-led troops or their supporters, the letter says. Yet a would-be bomber would then wait in the desert for months. "At the end he will be asked to do a small operation, such as murdering someone or blowing up a police car," the emir wrote. The foreigners would then become discouraged, he said, and return to their home countries.

The letter, which referred to the situation in Anbar as an "exceptional crisis," was found in an al-Qaeda in Iraq safe house in Samarra, about 65 miles north of Baghdad, along with a half-dozen hard drives, thumb drives and more than 100 CDs and DVDs of material from the group, U.S. officials said. The authenticity of the document could not be independently confirmed. In the letter, the emir said the difficulty in assigning tasks to potential suicide bombers was caused by increases in U.S. military operations and the formation of U.S.-backed Sunni tribal groups, known as Awakening councils, to fight against al-Qaeda in Iraq. "We found ourselves in a circle not being able to move, organize or conduct our operations," he wrote. "There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organization."

'Do Not Interfere In Social Issues'

The communiqué from Muhajer that appeared in some mosques in Anbar last month began with a typical al-Qaeda in Iraq rally-the-troops decree. "Strike hard at the enemies and intensify your operations against the occupiers," it said. "Cut off their communications by blowing up the towers and the land telephone exchanges and destroy the bridges and the important highways which they use." But the communiqué also shifted away from long-standing al-Qaeda in Iraq policies. "Do not interfere in social issues such as head covering, the satellite and other social affairs which are against our religion until further notice," Muhajer wrote. "Do take care not to kill Sunni civilians that did not sympathize with the apostates such as tribesmen," Muhajer wrote, referring to Sunnis in the U.S.-backed forces.

The authenticity of the communiqué, which was not posted on major insurgent Web sites as many of the group's messages are, was confirmed by Lehebi, who said it was meant to be an internal order. U.S. intelligence officials said they had not been previously aware of the communiqué. Reclaiming the support of local Sunnis may prove to be a significant challenge for al-Qaeda in Iraq. Ahmed al-Issawi, a spokesman for the Fatwa Council in Fallujah, said that the group of clerics issued a religious decree, or fatwa, on Jan. 17 that for the first time declared civilians killed by al-Qaeda in Iraq to be martyrs. "Al-Qaeda has killed hundreds of people in Iraq unfairly," he said bitterly. At a checkpoint just south of Fallujah, Nadim Kaffi, a 44-year-old Awakening member, said al-Qaeda in Iraq was not nearly as close to the people as the Awakening councils. "Al-Qaeda is almost done and finished. It no longer scares anyone," he said. "It is like an old man on the verge of his grave."

Paris Pledges More Troops For Afghanistan
London Financial Times
February 7, 2008

France on Thursday eased simmering tensions within NATO over Afghanistan when its defense minister said it would send troops to the violent south of the country to help Canadian forces there. Canada has threatened to pull its 2,500 troops out of Kandahar province unless its NATO allies sent 1,000 more troops. After a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Vilnius, Hervé Morin, France’s defense minister, said: “I’ve said we’ll help the Canadians.” Tensions within the alliance have been heightened by the unwillingness of some countries, including Germany, Italy and Spain, to commit fighting troops to the south of Afghanistan. The tensions follow a request by NATO’s military commander in Afghanistan for 7,000 extra combat troops. The French offer, details of which have still to be settled, will cover only a minority of the requirement. The U.S. has said it will send 3,200 more Marines, but only for a single, seven-month tour, and expects to see other NATO partners finding forces to replace them.

The Vilnius meeting took place as Condoleezza Rice, U.S. secretary of state, and David Miliband, her British counterpart, made an unannounced visit to Kandahar before flying to Kabul, the Afghan capital, for talks with President Hamid Karzai. Ms. Rice denied the UK and the U.S. were trying to embarrass European countries that have refused to send troops to the south. But she said almost 25 years of war in Afghanistan meant the international effort to stabilize the country would not be “completed overnight”. In a hint of recent tensions in relations between Kabul and London, Mr. Miliband pointedly reminded Mr. Karzai of the responsibility the president has for cleaning up his own government. He told Mr. Karzai that much of the progress made on education and healthcare could not have been achieved without the support of the international community. Afghanistan and its western backers had “mutual responsibilities that we have to support each other”. “I am here to talk about what the British government can do [to support Afghanistan] and the responsibilities of the British effort, and about the way we look forward to the work your government is going to do – at national, regional and local level – to help build the structure of clean and effective government, that the Afghans have the right to see.”

Robert Gates, U.S. defense secretary, told the Senate armed services committee on Wednesday that he was concerned about “the alliance evolving into a two-tiered alliance, in which you have some allies willing to fight and die to protect people’s security, and others who are not”. He added: “It puts a cloud over the future of the alliance if this is to endure and perhaps get even worse.” On Thursday he called on allies to make further commitments to the mission and to consider what he called “more creative contributions”. He said: “If somebody cannot send combat soldiers to a certain area then perhaps they could pay for helicopters or give helicopters to somebody who could.” Mr. Gates’ comments were reinforced by others in Vilnius. Yet Berlin indicated its reluctance to provide more troops. “I think we are making our contribution to Afghanistan,” Franz Josef Jung, German defense minister, said. Germany has 3,300 troops in the north of the country. According to diplomats, Mr. Morin will be briefed by military staff next week on several options for the south. Diplomats said they expected a “significant” French deployment to the region to reinforce President Nicolas Sarkozy’s efforts to move closer to the U.S. and reenter NATO’s military command, from which it withdrew four decades ago.

New Weight In Army Manual On Stabilization
New York Times
February 8, 2008

The Army has drafted a new operations manual that elevates the mission of stabilizing war-torn nations, making it equal in importance to defeating adversaries on the battlefield. Military officials described the new document, the first new edition of the Army’s comprehensive doctrine since 2001, as a major development that draws on the hard-learned lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial military successes gave way to long, grueling struggles to establish control. It is also an illustration of how far the Pentagon has moved beyond the Bush administration’s initial reluctance to use the military to support “nation-building” efforts when it came into office. But some influential officers are already arguing that the Army still needs to put actions behind its new words, and they have raised searching questions about whether the Army’s military structure, personnel policies and weapons programs are consistent with its doctrine. The manual describes the United States as facing an era of “persistent conflict” in which the American military will often operate among civilians in countries where local institutions are fragile and efforts to win over a wary population are vital.

Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, the commander of the Army’s Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas, began briefing lawmakers on the document on Thursday. In an interview, he called it a “blueprint to operate over the next 10 to 15 years.” “Army doctrine now equally weights tasks dealing with the population — stability or civil support — with those related to offensive and defensive operations,” the manual states. “Winning battles and engagements is important but alone is not sufficient. Shaping the civil situation is just as important to success.” In both Iraq and Afghanistan, the military is enmeshed in rebuilding local institutions, helping to restore essential services and safeguarding a vulnerable population. The new manual is an attempt to put these endeavors — along with counterinsurgency warfare — at the core of military training, planning and operations. That would require some important changes. “There is going to be some resistance,” General Caldwell said. “There will be people who will hear and understand what we are saying, but it is going to take some time to inculcate that into our culture.”

Even as they welcomed it, other Army officers said there were inconsistencies between the newly minted doctrine on how to wage war and current practice. Army brigades in Iraq have too few combat engineers to support civil programs, they said. Also, they added, the Army does not promote officers who advise the Iraqi and Afghan security forces as readily as battalion staff officers and needs to improve their training. Some Army officers have also questioned whether the development of the Army’s Future Combat System, a multibillion-dollar program in which air and unmanned ground sensors will be networked with armored vehicles so that soldiers can attack targets from a safe distance, is consistent with this new vision of war. The new manual is expected to be formally unveiled this month. The New York Times was provided with a recent draft.

When the United States invaded Iraq, Donald H. Rumsfeld, then the defense secretary, and many ranking military leaders spoke highly of the value of speed and high-technology military systems, arguing that they could enable a relatively small number of troops to rapidly defeat the United States’ adversaries. The mission of stabilizing Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein was generally treated as a secondary concern, one that assumed that Iraq’s security forces would both cooperate and be effective. The American military’s difficulty in securing Iraq has led to much soul-searching within the armed forces on how to prepare for future conflicts. Col. H. R. McMaster of the Army, who commanded the successful effort in 2005 to secure the northern Iraqi town of Tal Afar, asserts in a new article that an exaggerated faith in military technology and a corresponding undervaluation of political and military measures to secure the peace undermined American efforts in Iraq. “Self-delusion about the character of future conflict weakened U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq,” he wrote in Survival, a journal published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Colonel McMaster added in the article that the Army “is finding it difficult to cut completely loose from years of wrongheaded thinking,” noting that assumptions that high-technology systems will provide the American military with “dominant knowledge” of the battlefield has formed much of the justification for the Army program to build the Future Combat System. At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has cautioned the Army not to assume that the counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan are anomalies. Mr. Gates said in October that “unconventional wars” were “the ones most likely to be fought in the years ahead.” A 2005 Pentagon directive also advised the military to treat “stability operations” as a core mission. The Army’s new manual tries to address such concerns. It paints a picture of future wars in which the Army needs to be prepared to deal with changing coalitions and complex cultural factors. “The operational environment will remain a dirty, frightening, physically and emotionally draining one in which death and destruction result from environmental conditions creating humanitarian crisis as well as conflict itself,” the manual states. It will be an arena, the manual notes, in which success depends not only on force in defeating an enemy but also “how quickly a state of stability can be established and maintained.”

General Caldwell said the manual would influence Army education and training by stressing the sort of skills that are needed to bring stability to conflict-ridden states with weak governments. “There will be people who naturally will say, ‘If I can do high-end offense and defense, I can do any lesser kind of operations,’ ” he said. “What we have found through seven years is that is not the case.” Some steps to improve the Army’s abilities in these areas are already under way, he asserted. By way of example, changes are being made in the way combat engineers are assigned, to give commanders more flexibility.

Some of the Army’s up-and-coming officers, however, say much more needs to be done, including attracting more officers to disciplines that the manual says are so necessary, like advising foreign security forces and assisting with civil affairs. “The parts of the Army closest to the battlefield have adapted, including tactics and doctrine,” said Lt. Col. Paul Yingling, who wrote a widely circulated article criticizing how the generals fought the Iraq war. “However, the institutional Army, to include our organizational designs and our personnel system, is essentially the same as before 9/11.” He added: “The most important tasks we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan are building host-nation institutions, including security forces and governance. We need to attract the very best officers into these specialties to be successful at these tasks.”

Justice Dept. 'Cannot' Probe Waterboarding, Mukasey Says
Washington Post
February 8, 2008

The attorney general Thursday rejected growing congressional calls for a criminal investigation of the CIA's use of simulated drownings to extract information from its detainees, as Vice President Cheney called it a "good thing" that the CIA was able to learn what it did from those subjected to the practice. The remarks reflected a renewed effort by the Bush administration to defend its past approval of the interrogation tactic known as waterboarding, which some lawmakers, human rights experts and international lawyers have described as illegal torture. Testifying before the House Judiciary Committee, Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey said Justice Department lawyers concluded that the CIA's use of waterboarding in 2002 and 2003 was legal, and therefore the department cannot investigate whether a crime had occurred. "That would mean that the same department that authorized the program would now consider prosecuting somebody who followed that advice," he said.

New controversy about waterboarding has swirled in Washington since CIA Director Michael V. Hayden confirmed Tuesday that the CIA used the tactic on al-Qaeda prisoners Khalid Sheik Mohammed; Zayn al-Abidin Muhammed Hussein, commonly known as Abu Zubaida; and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri at a secret detention site. In congressional testimony, he defended the treatment as necessary to obtain information about potential terrorist attacks. The next day, White House spokesman Tony Fratto provoked criticism from lawmakers and others when he said that even though the CIA no longer uses waterboarding, it could do so again with Bush's approval, which would "depend on the circumstances," including whether "an attack might be imminent." Independent legal experts have said the use of a tactic meant to coerce detainees to talk by making them fear death through drowning is barred by U.S. laws and treaties under all circumstances, a viewpoint the administration has made clear it rejects. At the same time, Fratto and Hayden yesterday played down the idea that the administration could freely order more simulated drownings.

"In my own view, the view of my lawyers and the Department of Justice, it is not certain that that technique would be considered to be lawful under current statute," Hayden told the House intelligence committee. In 2006, Hayden said, he officially prohibited CIA operatives from using waterboarding after a Supreme Court decision forcing the administration to respect a Geneva Conventions article barring "outrages upon personal dignity" and "humiliating and degrading treatment" of U.S. detainees. He said he doubts the practice would be considered legal now. Fratto said the tactic could not be used again unless the president obtained new advice about its legality, personally approved it and notified Congress. "I'm not aware that anyone has plans to use it in this program," Fratto said. He said that although lawyers had determined that waterboarding was legal when it was used in 2002 and 2003, new laws passed since then would have to be considered. "We have made clear that the law has changed. That has given greater clarity to these questions," he said. But he declined to rule it out, saying, "We are not going to speculate on the future."

Cheney added to the cacophony yesterday when he said of those subjected to special CIA's interrogation methods, "It's a good thing we had them in custody, and it's a good thing we found out what they knew." Speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington about multiple counterterrorism policies Bush has approved, he added: "Would I support those same decisions again today? You're damn right I would." The Bush administration's sudden willingness to discuss waterboarding -- after five years of official silence about it -- follows the launch of a special U.S. attorney's investigation into the CIA's destruction in 2005 of interrogation videotapes that included footage of waterboarding and other harsh techniques. Many Democrats this week have called on Mukasey to open a separate criminal investigation to focus on the CIA's use of waterboarding and whether it violates U.S. anti-torture laws. Although Mukasey suggested in testimony last week that the tapes investigation could include that subject, his position has since appeared to have hardened.

Waterboarding, he told the House committee, "cannot possibly be the subject of . . . a Justice Department investigation" because its use was approved by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel. Mukasey made a parallel argument about the National Security Agency's warrantless wiretapping program, saying the Justice Department could not investigate that program because it was approved at the outset by the department's lawyers. Larry Cox, executive director of Amnesty International USA, called for an outside investigator. "Everyone in the world knows that waterboarding is torture and illegal," Cox said. "The U.S. government admits having done it. Yet the highest law enforcement official in the land refuses to investigate this scandal." In waterboarding, a prisoner generally is strapped to an inclined board with his head lower than his feet. Water is poured over his mouth and nose, which are covered with cellophane or cloth, producing a sensation of drowning. The tactic, which dates to at least the Spanish Inquisition, has been prosecuted as torture by the U.S. military and condemned by the State Department when used by despotic governments.

Waterboarding has become a signature controversy for Mukasey, a former federal judge whom the Senate nearly rejected as attorney general last fall over his refusal to say whether the tactic constituted illegal torture. In his appearance last week before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Mukasey said waterboarding would be torture if it were done to him. But he declined to say whether it was legal, saying that was irrelevant because the practice is no longer used. Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.), who had threatened this week to hold up the appointment of a deputy attorney general over the controversy, said yesterday he would allow the vote to proceed, but he decried the administration's policy. Durbin said "CIA agents have been put in jeopardy by misguided counsel from the Justice Department" on interrogation practices, and Mukasey's "refusal to repudiate waterboarding does tremendous damage to America's values and image in the world and places Americans at risk of being subjected to waterboarding by enemy forces."

Head Injury Killed Bhutto, Report Said To Find
New York Times
February 8, 2008

Investigators from Scotland Yard have concluded that Benazir Bhutto, the Pakistani opposition leader, died after hitting her head as she was tossed by the force of a suicide blast, not from an assassin’s bullet, officials who have been briefed on the inquiry said Thursday. The findings support the Pakistani government’s explanation of Ms. Bhutto’s death in December, an account that had been greeted with disbelief by Ms. Bhutto’s supporters, other Pakistanis and medical experts. Also on Thursday, the Pakistani government announced the arrest of two more suspects in connection with the assassination plot but gave few other details. Thousands of Ms. Bhutto’s supporters gathered in her hometown in southern Pakistan, marking the end of a 40-day mourning period.

It is unclear how the Scotland Yard investigators reached such conclusive findings absent autopsy results or other potentially important evidence that was washed away by cleanup crews in the immediate aftermath of the blast, which also killed more than 20 other people. The British inquiry also determined that a lone gunman, whose image was captured in numerous photographs at the scene, also caused the explosion, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the report has not been made public. Pakistani authorities originally said there were two assailants, based partly on photographs splashed across the front pages of the nation’s leading newspapers. Scotland Yard investigators relayed their key findings to the government of President Pervez Musharraf on Thursday, according to the officials.

The investigators are expected to present a formal report to the Pakistani government on Friday, as well as to Ms. Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, now co-chairman of her Pakistan Peoples Party, and the couple’s 19-year-old son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who is a student in London. Scotland Yard said through a spokesman in London that it would have no comment on the Bhutto report until after it was made public. The British team is to present its report on Friday to the additional inspector general of police, Abdul Majid, who is leading the Pakistani investigation team. Scotland Yard’s report will be presented just days before the country’s parliamentary elections on Feb. 18. The findings are certain to be met with widespread skepticism, especially from Mrs. Bhutto’s supporters who blame the government for her death, in particular Mr. Musharraf and the leading politician of the party that backs him, Pervez Elahi. They also are unlikely to calm the turmoil in the country now that the 40 days of mourning has ended.

Mr. Zardari and his party’s supporters say they believe she was shot, as do people who were riding with Ms. Bhutto when she died on Dec. 27 after her vehicle came under attack as she left a political rally in Rawalpindi. The doctors who treated Ms. Bhutto told a member of the hospital board, an eminent lawyer, Athar Minallah, that she had most likely been shot. Ms. Bhutto’s brazen killing set off days of violent protests and rioting across Pakistan. To allay public anger and to lend credibility to the investigations into the assassination plot, Mr. Musharraf invited a team of Scotland Yard forensic experts to assist Pakistani investigators in early January. But the British investigators have faced several hurdles, including the compromise of the crime scene by cleanup crews and Mr. Zardari’s refusal to allow an examination of Ms. Bhutto’s body. Mr. Musharraf has said that among the pieces of evidence potentially available to investigators was an X-ray taken by hospital technicians of Ms. Bhutto’s wounded skull. Investigators pored over hundreds of photographs taken at the scene, many by people with cellphone cameras.

The question of an autopsy became central to the circumstances of Ms. Bhutto’s death because of conflicting versions of the critical events put forward by the Pakistani government. Ms. Bhutto was standing in an open-roofed vehicle at the time of the attack. On the night she was killed, an unidentified Interior Ministry spokesman was quoted by the official Pakistani news agency as saying that she had died of a “bullet wound in the neck by a suicide bomber.”

But the official account later released by Pakistan’s government said that she had not been shot, but had instead died as a result of a skull fracture caused when her head struck a lever on her vehicle’s sunroof as she ducked back into the vehicle during the attacks. Even as the authorities in Islamabad prepared to receive the report, the government on Thursday announced the arrests of the two additional suspects in Ms. Bhutto’s death. Pakistani officials said that they were arrested Thursday morning in Rawalpindi, a city about seven miles from the capital that is home to the army’s headquarters. They gave few other details.

“All I can say is that two persons by the name of Husnain and Rafaqat were arrested today in the morning,” said Javed Iqbal Cheema, a retired brigadier who is the spokesman for the Interior Ministry, in a telephone interview Thursday evening. The government officials described the arrests as an “important breakthrough,” but they did not say what role they believed the two arrested played in Ms. Bhutto’s death. Mr. Cheema denied reports that one of the arrested men was the brother of the man said to have been the suicide bomber.

Pakistani officials consider Baitullah Mehsud, the militant leader of the South Waziristan region, as one of the prime suspects in the Bhutto case. Last month, the authorities arrested a teenager from North-West Frontier Province in connection with the case and later made an additional arrest. Both suspects are now under investigation, according to the Interior Ministry. In Garhi Khuda Baksh in southern Sindh Province, where Ms. Bhutto is buried at her family mausoleum, caravans of supporters started gathering Thursday morning, according to the local news media. Prayer services were also held in other cities.

Israel To Intensify Strikes If Rocket Fire Continues
Washington Post
February 8, 2008

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak threatened Thursday to intensify military operations in the Gaza Strip if fighters continue using the Palestinian territory for rocket attacks on southern Israel. Earlier in the day, Israeli troops supported by tanks, artillery and fighter jets raided Gaza, killing six Palestinian gunmen, according to Palestinian and news service accounts. Also, a 42-year-old Palestinian high school chemistry teacher was killed when a shell hit a school just before classes started in the morning, said Jamil Suleiman, director of the hospital in the Gaza village of Beit Hanoun. Three 16-year-old Palestinian boys, all students, were wounded, Suleiman said. Israel denied targeting the school, saying it was firing at rocket teams that use the border village as a base for attacks on Israel. On Thursday, fighters fired at least seven rockets at the southern Israeli town of Sderot, wounding one person, the Israeli military said.

Fighting between Israel and the armed Hamas movement that controls Gaza has increased since mid-January, when militants responded to a visit by President Bush to Israel with stepped-up launches of their handmade Qassam rockets and Israel intensified airstrikes. Israeli authorities say they have held off on larger ground or air offensives so as to minimize casualties. That could change, Barak said Thursday. "If the Qassam fire continues, we will intensify our activity, and the other side's losses, until we resolve the Qassam rocket problem," he said during a visit to a military base in Israel's north. Israeli troops entered Gaza early Thursday, drawing out Palestinian fighters in gun battles. Hamas said gunfire and Israeli missiles killed five of its men. A fighter from the Islamic Jihad group was also killed, news agencies said.

Fighting between Hamas and its political rival, Fatah, last summer broke up a unity government that the two had formed and left Hamas in charge of Gaza and Fatah in charge of the West Bank. The recent escalation of hostilities has overshadowed peace talks that had resumed between Israel and Fatah after Bush's visit. Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev this week urged Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, a Fatah leader, to bring what Regev called "rogue elements" in the West Bank under control. Hamas asserted responsibility for a suicide bombing Monday that killed a 73-year-old Israeli woman in southern Israel. Hamas said it had dispatched the two attackers from the West Bank town of Hebron. Until Monday's bombing, Hamas had not claimed to have carried out a suicide attack in Israel since 2004. Israel's Defense Ministry on Thursday directed the country's Infrastructures Ministry to proceed with a small cut in electricity to Gaza, the first of a possible series of power supply reductions meant to pressure Hamas to stop its rocket attacks. Since last month, Israel has sharply reduced shipments of fuel and other goods to Gaza.

"The combination of military action on the one hand and sanctions on Gaza on the other . . . will eventually bring the Qassam fire to a halt," Barak said at the military base. On Jan. 23, fighters eased the pressure of the sanctions in Gaza by blowing up miles of the territory's border fence with Egypt, allowing hundreds of thousands of Gaza residents to cross over and shop in that country. Egypt resealed the border Sunday. On Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit warned Gazans not to breach the wall again. "Whoever breaks the border line shall have his foot broken," Egypt's state news service quoted him as saying. Aboul Gheit also said Egypt was working diplomatically to ease restrictions on Gazans entering and leaving the strip through legal Gaza-Egypt border crossings. He urged Hamas to halt attacks on Israel in the meantime, saying rockets "lost in the sands of Israel" only give Israel an excuse for attacks on Gaza.