Trackpads Community - Science http://www.trackpads.com/forum/ Discussions about space, all fields of science - archaeology, paleontology, biology, etc en Mon, 06 Sep 2010 09:12:53 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.trackpads.com/forum/images/misc/rss.png Trackpads Community - Science http://www.trackpads.com/forum/ How to Test a Miracle http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943172-how-test-miracle.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 06:54:02 GMT *How to Test a Miracle* A few years ago, my... How to Test a Miracle

A few years ago, my colleague Luigi Garlaschelli and I were asked if we would be interested in testing a twenty-two-year-old mystic woman who talked with the Virgin Mary and could create supernatural phenomena.

Debora Moscogiuri was a mystical seer living in Manduria (Taranto) in southern Italy. During ecstatic periods, she could supposedly see and receive messages from the Madonna, which she would then deliver to worshippers. Other phenomena were said to take place in and around the seer's home, including religious icons (pictures and statues) allegedly weeping blood. As is usually the case, none of these phenomena had been carefully investigated or documented, nor were DNA tests performed to ascertain the origin of the blood.

In 1995 one of Moscogiuri's statues of the Virgin Mary allegedly began to drip olive oil. Sealed containers, such as small bottles or jars, left in the proximity of the statue were later found to be partially filled with oil. These had been tied with ribbons, taped, sealed with wax, and placed inside plastic bags. At Moscogiuri's request, some olive leaves were placed inside the bottles before they were sealed.

This phenomenon was reproduced when Dr. Giorgio Gagliardi, a physician from Milan, prepared two such wax-sealed containers: one was kept in his office and a second identical one was sent to Manduria, which was returned to him weeks later with some oil in it—still sealed. Nothing had happened inside the jar kept in Milan. Realizing that wax and tape seals are inadequate against tampering, Gagliardi asked us about secure, "tamper-evident" containers.
Evidence of Tampering

When testing psychic claimants, it is sometimes necessary to allow the subject to take some target material away from the laboratory in order to try and obtain a psychic effect on it in his home. Until a short time ago, the importance of using foolproof containers when conducting this kind of experiment was not fully recognized. Consider, for example, the naiveté with which some parapsychologists investigated the claimed psychokinetic powers of children and teenagers in the past. Since children and teenagers were thought unlikely (or unable) to cheat, they were too readily left alone with target material, such as spoons or pieces of metal to bend. Then, when bends were found in the material, psychic investigators immediately assumed that some kind of psychic force was at work. Later investigations showed these suppositions to be wrong, and now stricter controls are (or should be) used when testing psychic claims.

Preparing "fool-proof" containers (e.g., bags, envelopes, or boxes), which do not allow the subject access to the item contained inside, has always been a challenge. However, preventing access to the item (e.g., by placing it in a steel safe) is probably not as important as making sure that the container is "tamper-evident," meaning it is prepared in such a way that any improper attempt to open it can be easily detected. Special security items are now used to this end. The old sealing wax, for example, has been replaced by self-adhesive labels that show signs of physical tampering, such as attempts to peel it off or the application of heat or solvents. These strips also carry unique identification numbers, used to determine when someone has replaced a strip with a duplicate after opening the container.
Sealing the Tubes

Returning to our investigation of Debora Moscogiuri, Luigi and I confirmed with Gagliardi that the kind of seals he had used could be easily opened and later replaced. Therefore, we prepared a set of sealed test tubes as follows: a) an olive leaf was put into each glass test tube; b) the tubes were flame-sealed on a Bunsen burner, taking care not to scorch the leaf inside; c) each tube was numbered in several positions using a vibrating glass-etching instrument; d) each tube was checked for invisible gaps by holding it under water (in such conditions small air bubbles would escape from those imperfectly sealed); e) the tubes were weighed on a precision lab balance (tared just prior to this operation), recording all digits within a milligram of precision; f) each tube was then photographed with additional close-up lenses to record the etched number and shape of the sealed tip, where the glass had been melted.

When these tubes were slightly heated, the leaf inside gave off a few tiny droplets of water. The general look was quite different from that of oil, the total weight of course did not change, and the droplets were re-absorbed after a few days. Thus we decided not to worry about this detail. Each tube could then be identified by its weight and photograph, and each was "tamper-evident," as there is no way that glass can be melted and resealed exactly in its original shape.

Eight of these vials (numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10) were delivered to Moscogiuri through Gagliardi and Father Civerra, a Catholic priest who followed the seer. We did not know the whereabouts of the sealed tubes, nor what was happening to them at the other end of Italy.

Surprise, Surprise!

Two notable events followed. We received news from Civerra, wherein he reported a mystical vision by Moscogiuri of the Blessed Virgin: she had seen a large tongue of flame (of the Holy Ghost) approach the tubes and take one of them away, leaving just seven (the number of the Virgin's sorrows). Later, there was speculation that some of our tubes contained oil.

Through the intermediacy of Gagliardi and Civerra, we managed to get our tubes back. We then examined them during a videotaped meeting attended by both Gagliardi and Civerra. Afterward, all participants signed a statement of the results. Civerra had put the tubes we had prepared into a jar and then into a plastic bag; each of these containers had been wax-sealed. For the reasons given above, we disregarded these extra security measures and requested that only our tubes be taken out and checked. It should be noted that when asked, Civerra admitted that he had no way of verifying whether his wax seals had been tampered with and replaced.

It turned out that: a) one of the eight tubes (number 3) was missing; b) tubes 1, 2, and 7 were intact and did not contain any liquid; c) tube 4 had a broken tip that had produced a small gap, but no liquid was present; and d) tubes 6, 8, and 10 contained a yellow viscous liquid.

A comparison with the photographs of the originals showed that the tips had been melted and resealed. The shapes of the tips were clearly different. One of the tubes had been tampered with on the side, and the glass was deformed, leaving a large bubble. One tip was also slightly cracked. All three of these phials contained traces of a black substance, and the leaf was partially or completely carbonized.

It was quite apparent that some crude tampering had occurred, which was indicative not of a miracle but, on the contrary, of some sort of fraud carried out by somebody in Moscogiuri's group. However, Civerra did not accept our suggestion of fraud, claiming that he placed more trust in his own external wax seals and that any deformity in the tubes was due to the "Holy Ghost's flame" in Moscogiuri's vision.

Despite Civerra's claim, we concluded that such flame-sealed glass test tubes—prepared with the few simple control procedures described above—could actually be a useful tool in the hands of researchers testing psychokinetic abilities.

As for Debora Moscogiuri, it appears that she still claims to have visions and periodically receive messages from the Virgin Mary, but strangely enough, materializations of oil inside containers no longer take place.

This study would not have been possible without the work of Luigi Garlaschelli. ]]> Science cato2 http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943172-how-test-miracle.html Dangerous Climate Picture Emerging http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943123-dangerous-climate-picture-emerging.html Wed, 25 Aug 2010 20:51:37 GMT *Dangerous Climate Picture Emerging* By Rep. Ed... Dangerous Climate Picture Emerging
By Rep. Ed Markey
Chairman, House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming

The headlines from the hottest year-to-date on record paint a dangerous climate picture, consistent with the overwhelming scientific evidence.

Based on the National Journal’s question, I think it’s important to distinguish between scientific skepticism and flat-out denial in the face of the facts.

Scientists, skeptical by both nature and training, always urge a dose of caution when looking at any one event as evidence of climate change. They look at the totality of events and discover patterns that help determine how our climate is changing.

Deniers, on the other hand, are eager opportunists, who will use single points of data, or single events (remember Snowmaggedon?) to claim that the patterns do not exist. Theirs is a world of scientific dishonesty and misinformation.

And it is the high level of professional skepticism--not the useless back-and-forth encouraged by deniers—that makes the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is real and caused...

The headlines from the hottest year-to-date on record paint a dangerous climate picture, consistent with the overwhelming scientific evidence.

Based on the National Journal’s question, I think it’s important to distinguish between scientific skepticism and flat-out denial in the face of the facts.

Scientists, skeptical by both nature and training, always urge a dose of caution when looking at any one event as evidence of climate change. They look at the totality of events and discover patterns that help determine how our climate is changing.

Deniers, on the other hand, are eager opportunists, who will use single points of data, or single events (remember Snowmaggedon?) to claim that the patterns do not exist. Theirs is a world of scientific dishonesty and misinformation.

And it is the high level of professional skepticism--not the useless back-and-forth encouraged by deniers—that makes the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is real and caused by man all the more powerful. 97 to 98 percent of climate researchers support the fundamental conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The head of the National Academy of Sciences has indicated that we know more about the link between man and climate change than we do smoking and lung cancer.

Scientists have warned us that climate change will result in more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires, increased drought and flooding, and accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice. With that prognosis in mind, let’s review some of what has happened in 2010, which has seen the hottest January to July period on record.

RUSSIA:

Russia suffered both the worst heat wave and one of the worst droughts since record-keeping began more than 130 years ago. Some 25 million acres of land have suffered from drought damage, leading Prime Minister Putin to ban all exports of grain. Nearly another half million acres have been scorched by more than 800 wildfires and the death rate in Moscow doubled to 700 people per day as heat and smog descended on its streets. In India, temperatures in May reached 120 degrees, killing dozens and damaging crops.

PAKISTAN/CHINA/INDIA:

The extreme floods slamming much of Asia may prove to be one of the biggest humanitarian disaster in memory. In Pakistan alone, 1600 lives have been lost and 20 million people have been affected by flooding, threatening to further destabilize regions that are critical to our national security. Torrential rains and flooding in China have claimed at least 1800 lives this year.

GREENLAND:

In Greenland, an iceberg covering 100 square miles – more than four times the size of Manhattan – broke off the coast of Greenland. It is the largest piece of Arctic ice to break free in nearly half a century. The good news: This new iceberg provides plenty of room for global warming deniers to start their own country. The bad news: Leading scientist warned Congress this month that we may have already crossed a ‘tipping point’ in the Arctic.

HERE AT HOME:

And here in America, the only person not running from the heat has been LeBron James. Up and down the eastern seaboard, we have endured day-after-day of record-breaking temperatures. Mega-storms have rocked many regions of the country, including my home state of Massachusetts, where in March we had two “50-year” storms in two weeks.

Flash floods have shocked communities in Iowa, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The damage inflicted on Nashville was one of the most under-reported stories of the year. More than 20 people lost their lives in Tennessee and property damage exceeded a billion dollars due to the flood that submerged Music City.

Take a step back from these individual pieces and we see a mosaic that could not be clearer. Our world is experiencing extreme events that are consistent with the warnings and observations of scientists. In the United States, record highs now occur twice as often as record lows and the amount of precipitation falling in heavy downpours has increased 20 percent nationwide over the last 50 years. As carbon pollution increases, so does the risk of extreme events.

DENYING CLIMATE SOLUTIONS COSTS JOBS:

As several publications have pointed out in editorials, 2010 should be a climate wake up call. Following the warmest decade on record, it begs the question: when will the Republican deniers in the U.S. Senate finally get to work on clean energy and climate solutions?

Hiding behind the circus of stolen emails from climate scientist is no longer an option. Multiple reviews in the UK and here at home have exonerated climate scientists and reaffirmed that the science of human-caused climate change is robust.

The delay and denial in the Senate is costing the U.S. economy millions of jobs and billions in private investment.

This month Deutsche Bank, which oversees $700 billion in funds and devotes $6 to $7 billion to climate projects, announced their intentions to move billions of dollars in private sector energy investment projects from the United States to China and Western Europe. They placed the blame on Washington policy makers who have failed to act on energy and climate legislation that would provide a stable investment environment for clean energy jobs and technology to prosper. "You just throw your hands up and say ... we're going to take our money elsewhere," said Deutsche Bank’s Kevin Parker.

And why are the clean energy investments and jobs flowing to China? This summer the United States’ main economic rival announced both a reduction in carbon emissions and a plan to invest $738 billion in clean energy over the next decade.

Last year, the House came together, worked through our regional differences, and put together a plan for energy and climate legislation. The Waxman-Markey legislation will create millions of new jobs and provide the regulatory certainty for private capital to begin flowing to projects in the United States.

The American people need jobs now. Building wind turbines, solar panels, and high mileage vehicles will heat up our economy while helping to cool down our planet. ]]> Science cato2 http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943123-dangerous-climate-picture-emerging.html Climate, Energy And Stem Cells: Ceding the Frontier http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943122-climate-energy-stem-cells-ceding-frontier.html Wed, 25 Aug 2010 20:23:01 GMT *Climate, Energy And Stem Cells: Ceding the... Climate, Energy And Stem Cells: Ceding the Frontier

Yesterday's ruling blocking federal research for embryonic stem cells represents a potentially disastrous setback for the field. Seen in and of itself, the ruling might look like another salvo in America's endless polarizing battle over abortion rights but stepping back a bit shows a far deeper constellation of behaviors at work with much deeper consequences.

We are ceding our leadership in the most vital world arenas of technological innovation to others with stiffer political will and discipline.

The ruling focuses on the what is known as the Dickey-Wicker Amendment that has been attached to Department of Health and Human Services annual appropriations bills since 1996. Dickey-Wicker prohibits federal funds from supporting research where embryos are destroyed or discarded but it never addressed studies in which the cells are derived from embryos because that field developed later.

By holding that Dickey-Wicker addresses these new forms of researches, the judge hurled the promising scientific field back into the realm of political footballing. Recall that last week polls found 20 percent of Americans still believe the President is a Muslim. Thus, as has become clear, the realm of political football can thrive without a whiff of evidence or reason, both of which constitute the main ingredients of science's atmosphere.

Thus, in spite of the administration's attempts to move beyond hamstringing science for political points, the nation as a whole continues to slide down that slippery slope. Stem cells can now be added to other key domains of science/technology like climate and energy policy.
But other countries aren't playing this game.

A report released last week shows the rapid progress Europe has made in shifting its energy use to renewable forms. As Elisabeth Rosenthal reports:
Quote:
From 2008 to 2009 alone, the use of renewable energy in the European Union increased 8.3 percent. As I’ve reported as part of our continuing series, “Beyond Fossil Fuels,” some countries have made particularly great strides in this arena. Portugal now gets nearly 45 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, up from 17 percent five years ago.
On the climate front other nations, our competitor nations, are already making the moves to shift from carbon intensive economies. As Thomas Friedman has noted, China is already making this shift. From The China Daily:
Quote:
The country is set to begin domestic carbon trading programs during its 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015) to help it meet its 2020 carbon intensity target. ... Putting a price on carbon is a crucial step for the country to employ the market to reduce its carbon emissions and genuinely shift to a low-carbon economy, industry analysts said.
Meanwhile we have all but given up on an energy/climate bill. The continued ability for politics in this country to hijack scientific consensus means that we sit on our hands while other nations have the will to act.

The 20th century was an American century because we managed to marshal the science and technologies of the age and lead the world across new frontiers. Now we are ceding those frontiers to others as we allow the ragged edges of our politics greater voice than the science that once animated our greatness. It is not too late to stop the slide but the first step is to pull our heads out of our local squabbles and take a broader view.
The world is moving on — with or without us. ]]> Science cato2 http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943122-climate-energy-stem-cells-ceding-frontier.html The CO2/Temperature correlation over the 20th Century http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943108-co2-temperature-correlation-over-20th-century.html Wed, 25 Aug 2010 19:40:33 GMT *The CO2/Temperature correlation over the 20th... The CO2/Temperature correlation over the 20th Century

Previously, we looked at the correlation between CO2 and temperature over the past 40 years. However, as I'm always saying, you need to look at the broader view, not just a single piece of the puzzle. The 40 year period was chosen to demonstrate that even during a period of long term warming, internal variability causes periods of short term cooling. What if we look at a longer time series? Over the past century, are there any periods of long term cooling and if so, what is the significance?


Figure 1: CO2 green line derived from ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica (CDIAC). CO2 blue line measured at Mauna Loa (NOAA). Global temperature anomaly (GISS)

Figure 1 compares CO2 to global temperatures over the past century. The first thing to clarify is that the relationship between CO2 and global temperature is not linear. As more CO2 is added, the warming effect has a diminishing return. Hence, the relationship between CO2 and temperature is logarithmic, not linear. A more appropriate comparison with CO2 is radiative forcing.

Radiative forcing is loosely described as the change in net energy flux at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. Eg - the change in how much energy the planet is accumulating or losing. The relationship between global temperature anomaly and radiative forcing is linear. Figure 2 compares greenhouse gas forcing (which is predominantly due to CO2 but includes smaller contributions from CH4, N2O and CFC) to global temperature anomaly.


Figure 1: Greenhouse gas forcing (GISS) and global temperature anomaly (GISS).

In truth, Figure 1 and Figure 2 both paint a similar picture. While CO2 is rising from 1940 to 1970, global temperatures show a cooling trend. This is a 30 year period, longer than can be explained by internal variability from ENSO and solar cycles. If CO2 causes warming, why isn't global temperature rising over this period?

The broader picture in this scenario is to recognise that CO2 is not the only factor that influences climate. There are a number of forcings which affect the net energy flux into our climate. Stratospheric aerosols (eg - from volcanic eruptions) reflect sunlight back into space, causing net cooling. When solar activity increases, the net energy flux increases. Figure 3 shows a composite of the various radiative forcings that affect climate.


Figure 2: Separate global climate forcings relative to their 1880 values (image courtesy NASA GISS).

 When all the forcings are combined, the net forcing shows good correlation to global temperature. There is still internal variability superimposed on the temperature record due to short term cycles like ENSO. The main discrepancy is a decade centered around 1940. This is thought to be due to a warming bias introduced by US ships measuring engine intake temperature.


Figure 3: Net forcing (Blue - NASA GISS) versus global land ocean temperature anomaly (Red - GISS Temp).

So we see that climate isn't controlled by a single factor - there are a number of influences that can change the planet's radiative balance. However, for the last 35 years, the dominant forcing has been CO2. ]]> Science cato2 http://www.trackpads.com/forum/science/943108-co2-temperature-correlation-over-20th-century.html